# A1.4 Launch-time crew tag score (Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 14:40 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **A launch-time tag works without waiting for PP5's file.** Tag = the deployer's funder (up to 3 hops, crew.db `wallet.funder`) is the creator of an EARLIER launch. Take that launch's crew. This uses only what existed before the launch.
- Price Predict found the same mechanism: 71% of badge creators were funded by an earlier creator of the same crew. This is the walk-forward score.
- Crew A is `0x92a0849f9b1e9e02363a4bd8d74a317fa6ddae92`. Crew B/C is `0x4757fc41278bd0f1b028c6dae71d381dc4558d98`.

| Day | Pond coins | Tagged | Tags correct | A or B/C coins | Caught by tag | False A or B/C tags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Sep | 84 | 50% | 100% | 23 | 18 | 0 |
| 1 Oct | 102 | 66% | 100% | 66 | 53 | 0 |
| 2 Oct | 133 | 41% | 100% | 41 | 35 | 0 |
| 3 Oct | 160 | 34% | 100% | 50 | 29 | 0 |
| 4 Oct | 120 | 52% | 100% | 54 | 46 | 0 |
| **All** | 599 | 47% | **100%** | 234 | **181 (77%)** | **0** |

- **Money** (pass coins, $20, half at 3x / rest at 10x, 3 s sell delay, fees):

  | Way of trading | Coins | Per coin | Every day positive? |
  |---|---|---|---|
  | **Launch tag A or B/C, buy at 10 s** | 181 | **+145%** | yes, +121% to +198% |
  | 33 s label A or B/C, buy at 35 s | 182 | +47% | yes, +32% to +102% |

## Verdict against the gate
- The supervisor asked for 80%+ match with the 33 s label.
  - Precision is 100%: every tag was right, and there were 0 false A or B/C tags.
  - Recall is 77%: it misses about 1 in 4 crew coins (the ones whose funder chain does not lead back to an earlier creator within 3 hops).
  - Missed coins can still be bought at 35 s on the label.
- **Recommendation:**
  - Trade at 10 s on the launch tag.
  - Fall back to 35 s on the label for untagged crew coins.
  - Combine with the hot filter (A1.1) and the per-crew exits (A1.3).

## Caveats
- The crew.db funder table is filled by Price Predict's crew map within seconds of launch. Live latency must be checked: the tag only helps if the funder row exists before our 10 s buy.
- 5 test days.

First principles: about 80%. The mechanism (the crew's money passes from one creator to the next) is proven on chain, and the test uses only earlier launches.

Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-4-launch-tag.md