# A1.5 Crew overlap with the v3 runner coins (Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 13:50 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **Answer: our $500 buy does not trigger pulls in the v3 lane, and these coins are not crews A or B/C.**
- **Analyst 2's 59 trade list is not published, so I rebuilt the lane:**
  - every Uniswap v3 WETH 0.01% pool from block 61,500,000 to 81,372,288 (factory `0x1f7d7550b1b028f7571e69a784071f0205fd2efa`): 4,611 pools;
  - first 2 h of swaps, plus 24 h of swaps, mints and burns for the coins that passed the gate;
  - gate = buyers paid $20k at a $1M+ cap within 1.5 h of the first trade: **114 coins**.

  The rule's 59 trades are a subset of these (after the 8% receiver and army filters).

## Findings
1. **Who made them:**
   - None of the 114 deployers is in Price Predict's crew map (crew.db `wallet`/`launch`). That map only covers v4 deployers, so this alone is not proof.
   - Crew A and B/C army wallets (2,832 traced wallets, distributors `0xbae538011874261e3fb4ca6aa03cacb2766c4d81` and `0x79411dbcbcf0e5b27cd222f24e082fc0bbf32f16`) almost never trade these coins. 10 of 114 coins had 1 to 4 army wallets among their 60 biggest pre-gate buyers, and they brought about 0% of the buy ETH.
   - So the v3 lane is not crews A or B/C. Other crews are possible; deployers are fresh wallets.
2. **Pulls:**
   - 60 of 114 were pulled within 24 h (50%+ of the minted liquidity burned). Median pull 3.0 h after the start.
3. **Do big buys trigger the pull?**
   - Of 233,542 buys of 0.1 ETH or more after the gate (on coins that were later pulled), only 226 (0.10%) were followed by the pull within 60 s.
   - A random 60 s window contains the pull 0.37% of the time.
   - So a big buy makes a pull LESS likely in the next minute, not more.
   - Median time from the last 0.1+ ETH buy to the pull: 156 s.
   - Only 19 of 60 pulls had any 0.1+ ETH buy in the 60 s before them, on coins with thousands of such buys.
4. **For the rule:** a $500 buy (about 0.185 ETH) sits inside a flood of same-size bot buys. No sign it is noticed. The pull guard (half the pool's money gone means exit) is still needed, because 53% of these coins get pulled.

## Recheck on Analyst 2's exact 59 trades (sw-a2-trades59.csv)
- 57 of the 59 are in my 114.
- **Crews:** no deployer is in the crew map. 4 coins had any crew A or B/C army wallet among their top 60 buyers, and the most any coin got from them was 0.009% of buy ETH.
- **Pulls:** 25 were pulled within 24 h. Of 137,833 buys of 0.1 ETH or more after the gate, only 136 (0.10%) were followed by the pull within 60 s. 11 of the 25 pulls had any big buy in the minute before.
- **Same answer:** a $500 buy is not a pull trigger in this lane.
- This is different from pond crews A and B/C. There, Price Predict's wash-fix result found 7 of 7 outside buys of 0.1 ETH or more were pulled within 60 s, so window 1 stays at $20 a coin.

First principles: about 75%. "Outside buyer" here means any buy of 0.1 ETH or more (no first-funder check on 233k buyers). The size result is strong because the pull is not near big buys at all.

Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-5-crew-overlap-v3.md