# A1.7 Money test on depth-priced fills (Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 13:10 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **CORRECTION (A1.9, 13:50 Bangkok): the `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` and `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a` lines below are withdrawn.** Their "outside" early buyers were 20 crew wallets present in every coin, and "+464%" was my paper exit, not their real result (real: −24%). See http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-9-non-pulling-crews.md
- **Depth is not the problem. Being seen is.**
  - Pricing every buy and sell on the pool's real depth costs only **5 points at $20** and 24 points at $150 (10 s entry). So depth doesn't explain the 15 point gap to Price Predict's lab real mode.
  - The big unknown is A1.6: in crews A and B/C, a $9+ outside buy is followed by a pull within 60 s about 40 points more often than normal.
  - If our buy always triggers that pull, the A + B/C book at 10 s goes from **+170% to −95%** with the pull-time sell plan.
- **Robust plan for A and B/C: sell everything at 2x.** It makes +91% if our buy is ignored and **still +35% if our buy always triggers a pull within 60 s**. With a 40% trigger chance: +69%.
- **Crew `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` is the money crew for window 1.** It doesn't punish outside buys (A1.6), and on depth fills it makes **+426% at $20, +332% at $150** (10 s, 24 coins, every day positive).

## Results (30 Sep to 4 Oct, hot crews, walk-forward pull-time sell plan from A1.8, fees and gas in)
| Set | Coins | Mid price $20 | Depth $20 | Depth $80 | Depth $150 | Depth $20 if our buy forces a pull in 60 s |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hot + launch tag, 10 s, all | 159 | +233% | +228% | +215% | +204% | −84% |
| of which A + B/C | 123 | | +170% | +169% | +166% | −95% |
| of which other hot crews (mostly `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9`) | 36 | | +426% | +376% | +332% | −44% |
| Hot, 35 s fallback, all | 165 | +133% | +129% | +119% | +109% | −99% |
| of which A + B/C | 122 | | +46% | +46% | +45% | −100% |
| of which other hot crews | 43 | | +365% | +326% | +290% | −95% |

- Every row is positive on 5 of 5 days when the buy is ignored. The two "all" rows are negative on 5 of 5 days when the pull is forced.
- **A + B/C at 35 s is the weak spot:** +46% if ignored, −12% at a 40% trigger chance. Drop the 35 s fallback for A and B/C.

## Sell plan if our buy might trigger a pull (A + B/C, 10 s, depth $20)
| Plan | Buy ignored | Pull forced in 60 s | 40% trigger chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| All at 1.5x | +66% | +60% | +64% |
| **All at 2x** | +91% | +35% | **+69%** |
| Half 2x, rest 10x | +140% | −33% | +71% |
| Pull-time plan (all at 10x for A and B/C) | +170% | −95% | +64% |

All at 2x gives up some upside but can't blow up. Half 2x / rest 10x is a close second if a live test shows the trigger chance is low.

## Method
- **Depth model:** each pond pool's liquidity L is taken from its own swaps: L = |ETH moved| ÷ |change in 1/sqrtPrice|, using the median of the last 5 swaps.
  - Buy x ETH: tokens = L × (sqrtP0 − sqrtP1), where 1/sqrtP1 = 1/sqrtP0 + x/L.
  - Sell y tokens: sqrtP rises by y/L, and the ETH out comes off the same curve.
  - 1% fee each side, $0.06 gas per transaction, sells fill 3 s after the trigger, ETH at $2,700.
  - Median ETH in the pool at 10 s: 2.3 (25% of pools under 0.93).
- **Check:** with depth turned off, the new simulator matches the old one to 0.3 points.
- **Forced pull:** the pool is pulled 60 s after our buy (or earlier if it really was), and anything still held is lost.
- **Gap to Price Predict:** depth explains 5 of the 15 points. The rest is likely latency or the lab's own exit rules. Please send the lab's per-coin real-mode fills for these 159 coins so the gap can be split.

First principles score: 80%. The depth curve is the pool's own math, and the forced-pull case is a hard worst case. Missing: the real trigger chance for OUR wallet (only a live $4 test can measure it), and the lab's per-coin fills to settle the last 10 points.

Scripts: /root/a1/simd.py, /root/a1/a17/grid.py, g2.py (review container). Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-7-depth-fills.md