# A1.9 Non-pulling crews, deeper (Analyst 1, 6 Oct 2026, 13:50 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **CORRECTION of my A1.6 and A1.7: the "non-pulling crews" edge is not real.** Two numbers misled me.
  - **"+464% a trade" was paper, not real money.** It was my sell plan (sell all at 10x) run from those buyers' entry points. What the buyers really got, from their own buys and sells: **−24%** in `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` and **−46%** in `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a`.
  - **"0 pulls after 179 outside buys" was 0 pulls after the crew's own buys.** All 211 early $9+ buys in `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` came from the same 20 wallets.
    - Each of those wallets is in all 42 of its coins, and also in `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a`'s coins.
    - None has a first funder in ffund, so my army filter missed them.
    - They lose ETH into pools the crew pulls. That is wash money, not outside money.
  - **Truly independent buyers in these two crews put in only 0.19 ETH in total, and lost almost all of it.** Nobody outside has ever proven this edge.
- **Both crews have stopped.** `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` last launched about 3 Oct (block 78,782,354), down from 16 a day on 30 Sep. `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a` last launched 27 Sep. Same 20 wallets, so most likely the same operator under a new root.
- **What stays true:** the price in `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` coins climbed slowly for about an hour before the pull (from a first-minute entry: median top 14x, 68% reached 10x). A seller with a fixed exit could have taken it, but that is a paper edge on a crew that is gone.
- **Are there more crews like them? Not on a fair test.**
  - The walk-forward "safe crew" flag needs 10+ earlier independent early buys, a normal pull rate and real buyers in profit.
  - It picks 28 coins, where independent buyers made +60%. On all other coins they made +68%. So the flag adds nothing.
  - A few tiny crews look good looking back (5 to 13 coins each). That is too thin to call.

## Real buyers, from their own trades (20 Sep to 4 Oct)
| Crew | Who | Positions | ETH in | Real result |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` | the 20 repeat wallets | 748 | 313.7 | −24% |
| `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` | everyone else (56 wallets) | 70 | 0.14 | −100% |
| `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a` | the same 20 wallets | 192 | 54.4 | −46% |
| `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a` | everyone else (10 wallets) | 15 | 0.05 | −94% |

- The repeat wallets by day (first minute, $9+): 29 Sep −21%, 30 Sep +1%, 1 Oct +7%, 2 Oct +4%, 3 Oct −13%.
- Size: the bigger they bought, the less they lost ($700+ about 0%, $110 to $270 −74%). But this is the crew's own money, so it says nothing about us.
- The 10 biggest repeat wallets, for the record:
  - `0x93047b129646665c0bb7637485cd9627b65d1145`
  - `0x99e3babdf05129e31993a1c36bd52808a4745737`
  - `0x597dcbaa9edd2fc950d4f459492a223ff926b654`
  - `0xaf9b2555e7ef350a99339f79ef450ccd536e465c`
  - `0xfb55222ef4a9a4ca09b860d6407a7de2169d0ad9`
  - `0x2418dadd101a47d22b98f59701391c4b029b5200`
  - `0x550836793e385e488628d3d2a018ee6b01e126b8`
  - `0x1268c4ad9dd21fcba9b08c84f2930f75afe35ccf`
  - `0x475bf67c397220b93d92ceeb10be7e85fc2b2a84`
  - `0x516971efb8ed6879f913eedd09fb5e71f340be02`
- On chain, `0x597dcbaa9edd2fc950d4f459492a223ff926b654` is a smart account. It bought 13 times in one coin, and on its way out it sprayed small token amounts through `0x34ba704793312bc1fac17a16e3b56ae93667be0f` to many fresh wallets. That is holder-count farming.

## Walk-forward crew ranking (independent buyers only; repeat wallets removed using earlier coins only)
| Crew | Coins | Independent early positions | Their real result | Pulled within 60 s after their $9+ buys | Expected |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| `0xc04a34e4ac432be41340f7776197b9acea38985d` | 5 | 139 | +147% | 14% | 19% |
| `0x3ce5c6ad05f2c41dda0e084e3dc16ee94ac994c9` | 7 | 394 | +146% | 0% | 0% |
| `0x0ebe0078520ba12046a316d4ab92d275a14113e2` | 7 | 211 | +110% | 3% | 4% |
| `0x59768f1485fc66c3fcdcc4deaf62c2f5bb62c9ba` | 5 | 316 | +45% | 18% | 18% |
| `0xdc5115eb561d3fe0c1e2363303635e890c757a21` | 13 | 189 | +18% | 17% | 14% |
| `0xca24b6f1b00a7d336ef2984239daa836f17cb6c1` | 193 | 42 | +6% | 19% | 11% |
| B/C `0x4757fc41278bd0f1b028c6dae71d381dc4558d98` | 378 | 66 | −10% | 51% | 14% |
| A `0x92a0849f9b1e9e02363a4bd8d74a317fa6ddae92` | 344 | 44 | −35% | 57% | 14% |
| `0x0ec66d31aab7e387b2f4cda075e39f7a6a0f541b` | 415 | 26 | −70% | 60% | 14% |

- The top 5 rows are small crews with few coins, and they look good only looking back. The walk-forward flag doesn't pick them in time often enough to matter (28 coins in total).
- A, B/C and `0x0ec66d31aab7e387b2f4cda075e39f7a6a0f541b` confirm A1.6: independent buyers lose, and their buys are followed by pulls 4x more than normal.

## What this means
- **Window 1 has no proven real-money edge today.** The paper edges all assume our buy is ignored and that we exit before the pull. The two crews where outside buys looked ignored were buying from themselves.
- The only open real-money question is the $4 ticket on A and B/C (A1.10). It waits for Ben's live test.
- **New crews since 4 Oct can't be scored yet.** For example `0x04f2cb48fa0c60da3a6241077f1b7c549b9b9094` (37 launches) and `0xa9707935dd88323fba9aa9d6a95e3ab82c1ba786` (12). The pond day-file rebuild on main has been paused since at least 12:47 Bangkok with "PAUSED: under 12 GB free on disk", so there are no swaps after 4 Oct.

## Asks
- **Price Predict:**
  - Free disk on main so the day-file rebuild resumes (`/opt/hist/rh/rebuild.log`).
  - Trace the first funders of the 20 repeat wallets (start with the 10 above). If they lead back to the old crew, tag the new root.
  - The paid dRPC key in `/opt/common/drpc_paid.json` returned 403 from main at 13:30 Bangkok. Please check it.
- **Coder:** don't size up on `0x7028bab73f82dff14b199593abb76c8b6acb3aa9` or `0x2dacdf0f44d07234832799a10a7cc5c8eff0223a`. That line in my status page is withdrawn.
- **Supervisor:** the "proven with other people's real money" line in v1.3 rests on my A1.6 wording. It is wrong. Please strike it.

First principles score: 90%. Real results come from each wallet's own buys and sells on the pool, and the wallet farm is visible straight from the swap tape (20 wallets in 42 of 42 coins). Missing: the farm's funding source, and any data after 4 Oct.

Scripts: /root/a1/a19/pos.py, p1.py, rank.py, rcpt.py (review container). Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/a1-9-non-pulling-crews.md