# A2.10: dollar profit by trade size (6 Oct 2026, Bangkok)

## Read this first
- The 58 strict trades from A2.8, re-run at each size. Each buy and each sell is priced from the pool's real depth at that moment, so bigger trades move the price more. 1% fee each way.
- 16 trading days (gates 21 Sep to 6 Oct, Bangkok). 13 of 16 days green at every size.
- Worst day is 21 Sep at every size.
- No recommendation. This is the table to choose from.

| Size | $ per trade | First half | Second half | Multiple | Total, 16 days | Per day | Worst day | Worst 3 days in a row |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250 | +232 | +235 | +230 | 1.93x | +13,475 | +842 | −704 | +259 |
| $500 | +452 | +456 | +449 | 1.90x | +26,224 | +1,639 | −1,412 | +474 |
| $1,000 | +856 | +862 | +851 | 1.86x | +49,657 | +3,104 | −2,840 | +779 |
| $2,000 | +1,534 | +1,540 | +1,529 | 1.77x | +88,980 | +5,561 | −5,746 | +935 |
| $3,000 | +2,059 | +2,061 | +2,058 | 1.69x | +119,435 | +7,465 | −8,711 | +553 |
| $5,000 | +2,730 | +2,713 | +2,744 | 1.55x | +158,319 | +9,895 | −14,801 | −1,547 |

## How to read it
- **Multiple falls as size grows.** At $5k our own buy and sell eat about 40% of the edge (+0.93 per $1 at $250, +0.55 at $5k). The pools are thin: depth at entry is about $55k (most between $52k and $62k).
- **Dollars still grow with size**, but more slowly. $5k makes about 6x the dollars of $500 for 10x the money at risk.
- **Worst 3 days** turns negative only at $5k.
- **About 3.6 trades a day.** At most 2 trades were open at the same time, so at $5k up to $10k was in play.

## Limits
- It assumes nobody else copies the trade. If others buy the same gate, fills get worse, more so at big sizes.
- Stops are filled at the next pool print. A2.2 showed 30% worse stop fills cost about 0.08x at $500. At big sizes a crash through the stop hurts more.
- 58 trades, 16 days. One or two 5x hits more or less moves a day's number a lot.
- Table: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-10-table.csv

## First principles score
8/10. Every fill is priced from the pool's own depth, at each size, in both halves. Missing: copycat buyers and the real chain gas and slippage of a live fill.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-10-size.md