# A2.13: confirmed stop (6 Oct 2026, Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **Verdict: keep the instant stop and keep the re-entry variant.** The two do the same job: they catch the coins that dip under the stop and then come back to 5x.
  - Instant stop + re-entry: +$31.5k at $500 (first half +$16.4k, second half +$15.1k). Losers do not get bigger.
  - 2 min confirmed stop, no re-entry: +$29.2k (+$12.8k and +$16.4k). It makes 25 losers worse and turns 5 more into near-zero.
- **On the main book alone**, a 2 min confirmation does pay in both halves: 1.95x and 2.06x, against 1.91x and 1.90x. That's +$3.0k at $500.
  - **But the whole gain is 3 coins** that came back to 5x: 0xabe99cf268cdc8bd70a71a5283fdacbcb36714fd, 0x9ba4d84ac1571a0788b2bb7a6412e73529d12dc6 and 0x224a794031d54e49b46919ade2c55ff255dfdd97. The re-entry book already catches the first two.
- 30 s confirmation: worse in the first half. Two prints in a row: no change.
- On both variant books (age 1.5 to 3 h, re-entry), every confirmation makes the result worse.
- **Fallback:** if the re-entry book fails live, switch the main book to a 2 min confirmed stop.

## How it was tested
- Same strict data and exits as A2.8: 5x target, stop at 0.6x entry cap, pull guard (R ≤ 0.5 × R at entry, always instant), 12 h, $500, 1% fee each way, pool-depth fills.
- **Confirmed stop:**
  - The stop arms at the first swap at or under 0.6x.
  - It disarms if a later swap prints above 0.6x.
  - It sells when the price has stayed under the stop for 30 s, 2 min or 5 min. The sale is at the price at that moment, which is the last swap's price.
- **Two prints:** sell on the second swap in a row under the stop.
- The re-entry trades keep their A2.9 entry times. Only their exits change.

## Main book (58 trades)

| Stop | First half | Second half | $ at $500 | Exits at stop | Worse trades | Better trades | Near zero (<0.1x) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Instant (today) | 1.91x | 1.90x | +26,224 | 34 | | | 7 |
| 2 prints | 1.91x | 1.89x | +26,113 | 29 | 15 | 14 | 7 |
| 30 s | 1.85x | 1.95x | +26,160 | 19 | 25 | 4 | 10 |
| 2 min | 1.95x | 2.06x | +29,199 | 12 | 25 | 4 | 12 |
| 5 min | 1.93x | 2.04x | +28,766 | 11 | 26 | 3 | 12 |

- **What waiting costs:**
  - at 2 min, the 25 worse trades lose 0.18x each at the median, 6.8x of stake in total;
  - 5 more trades end near zero (7 become 12).
- **What waiting gains:** 3 trades turn from a stop at about 0.56x into a 5x (+12.7x in total).
- **At bigger sizes** the 2 min stop still wins on the main book alone:
  - $2k: 1.86x against 1.77x;
  - $5k: 1.62x against 1.55x.

## Variant books

| Book | Instant | 2 prints | 30 s | 2 min | 5 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Age 1.5 to 3 h (11) | 1.60x / 1.98x | 1.59x / 1.98x | 1.56x / 1.94x | 1.51x / 1.89x | 1.48x / 1.93x |
| Re-entry (12) | 1.91x / 1.79x | 1.91x / 1.78x | 1.88x / 1.68x | 1.83x / 1.68x | 1.85x / 1.68x |

(first half / second half)

## Whole system: stop type plus re-entry

| System | First half | Second half | Total $ at $500 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Instant stop, no re-entry | 1.91x (27), +12,315 | 1.90x (31), +13,909 | +26,224 |
| **Instant stop + re-entry with buyer check (A2.9)** | 1.91x (36), +16,414 | 1.89x (34), +15,093 | **+31,507** |
| Instant stop + re-entry, price only | 1.77x (39), +15,012 | 1.82x (39), +16,056 | +31,069 |
| 2 min stop, no re-entry | 1.95x (27), +12,839 | 2.06x (31), +16,360 | +29,199 |
| 2 min stop + re-entry, price only | 1.85x (32), +13,570 | 1.96x (33), +15,842 | +29,412 |
| 5 min stop + re-entry, price only | 1.82x (32), +12,579 | 2.08x (33), +16,187 | +30,860 |

- Best total and best weaker half: instant stop + re-entry with buyer check (weaker half +$15.1k; 2 min alone: +$12.8k).
- The re-entry buyer check could not be run on the confirmed-stop systems: the wallet data after the later stop times was not fetched. Those rows use price-only re-entry.

## Why (first principles)
- A stop that waits keeps every coin that dips and comes back. It also keeps every coin that keeps falling, and those fall further. Here the second group is 25 trades, the first is 3.
- A re-entry buys back only after the price has come back above entry and fresh buyers are arriving. It pays one extra round of fees but never makes a loser bigger.

## Files
- Every trade under every stop rule: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-13-trades.csv

## First principles score
7/10. Real pool prices at every print, both halves, no look-ahead. The comeback gain rests on 3 to 4 coins, and the confirmed-stop systems could only be tested with the price-only re-entry.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-13-confirmed-stop.md