# A2.14: size table on real pool depth (6 Oct 2026, 13:55 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **The size table barely moves.** Every one of the 81 trades (58 main + 11 age + 12 re-entry) was repriced by walking the pool's real tick liquidity at the entry and exit events.
  - The fills match the old R model to within 0.02x even at $5k.
  - Reason: at the $1M gate, the real ETH in these pools is 92% to 96% of the virtual reserve (median 95%).
- **The size where a trade drops below 1.5x is about $6.8k** (second half alone: about $5.8k). With the old model it was about $5.8k.
- **One bug found in the old model, and it changes one trade:**
  - The R model counted a mint and burn far outside the price range as a pull. That was 0x978177408c2f741c24ddf5ea9eb14cecbf9b3926: a 1-tick position at tick 137355 to 137356, while the price sat at tick 140410.
  - Real in-range liquidity never dropped. The trade really hit 5x (4.83x), not 0x.
  - **Main book now 1.99x at $500** (first half 2.09x, second half 1.90x, unchanged). It was 1.90x.
  - **Corrects A2.2:** only 2 of the "3 pulls" were real.
- **Why STONKROBBERS showed 7.6% against 0.9%:** it was near its launch price.
  - Its only position is the launcher's range, ticks -887272 to 207243, and the price sat at tick 207172, 71 ticks (0.7%) from the end of the range.
  - Close to the launch price, the virtual reserve counts ETH that is not in the pool, so a quote there is thin.
  - At our $1M gate the price is far from that end, so this does not hit our trades. It only hits exits after a crash: in 2 stop exits the real ETH was 12% of the virtual reserve, and both were near-zero losers anyway.

## Table (main book, 58 trades, 16 days; true in-range liquidity for exits, real tick walk for fills)

| Size | Old mult | New mult | New first half | New second half | New $ per trade | New total | New worst day | New worst 3 days |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $250 | 1.93x | 2.01x | 2.12x | 1.92x | +253 | +14,697 | −358 | +259 |
| $500 | 1.90x | 1.99x | 2.09x | 1.90x | +494 | +28,635 | −717 | +474 |
| $1,000 | 1.86x | 1.94x | 2.04x | 1.85x | +937 | +54,355 | −1,443 | +779 |
| $2,000 | 1.77x | 1.84x | 1.94x | 1.77x | +1,688 | +97,916 | −2,918 | +937 |
| $3,000 | 1.69x | 1.76x | 1.84x | 1.69x | +2,280 | +132,214 | −4,421 | +559 |
| $5,000 | 1.55x | 1.61x | 1.69x | 1.55x | +3,066 | +177,801 | −7,504 | −1,531 |
| $7,500 | 1.40x | 1.46x | 1.52x | 1.41x | +3,462 | +200,801 | −11,483 | −6,123 |
| $10,000 | 1.28x | 1.34x | 1.39x | 1.29x | +3,367 | +195,287 | −15,579 | −12,389 |

- **Size at 1.5x:**
  - all trades: about $6.8k ($6k 1.55x, $7k 1.49x);
  - second half only: about $5.8k ($5.5k 1.52x, $6k 1.49x).
- **Dollars per trade** peak at about $7.5k and fall after that.
- **Worst day** halves vs the old table, because 21 Sep's 0x pull is now a 5x. 14 of 16 days are green (was 13).
- **Old table:** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-10-size.md

## Variant books at $500
- Age 1.5 to 3 h: 1.70x, both models.
- Re-entry: 1.88x, both models. Its entry times are kept from A2.9.

## For the Coder
- **Pull guard:** use in-range liquidity only. A Mint or Burn changes active liquidity only if tickLower ≤ current tick < tickUpper (same for the R used at entry).
  - Spec A2.1 section 8 "active liquidity = last swap liquidity minus burned units" is wrong for out-of-range positions.
  - The Swap event's own `liquidity` field is always right.
- **Impact:** your real-swap quote and this tick walk should agree within 0.02x on all 58. A gap larger than that means a different state block or a quote at a price near the launch floor.
- I could not compare line by line: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/w2-replay58.csv returned 404 at 13:50 Bangkok.

## How
- Ticks: every Mint and Burn of the 69 pools (tickLower, tickUpper, amount), 2,843 events, read from chain.
- State at each event: sqrtPrice and liquidity from the last Swap. Mints and burns change active liquidity only when in range.
- **Buy:** $V × 0.99 of WETH in, walked through the initialized ticks with the pool fee. Any input that cannot fill is refunded.
- **Sell:** all tokens back in at the exit event, walked the same way. Tokens that cannot be sold count as 0.
- **Exits:** same rule (5x, stop at 0.6x instant, pull at R ≤ 0.5 × entry R, 12 h). R now comes from in-range liquidity.
- **Files:**
  - table http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-14-table.csv
  - per trade and size http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-14-trades.csv

## First principles score
8/10. Fills come from the pool's real liquidity map at each event, in both halves.
- Our own buy is assumed not to move the exit state.
- The STONKROBBERS 7.6% was read from chain state, not from the Coder's quote.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 13:55 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-14-real-depth.md