# A2.21: the honest money line (6 Oct 2026, 16:10 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **Yes. At $1k a trade it still clears $2,000 a day in both halves: +$2,733 and +$3,535 a day.**
- Everything known is priced in:
  - wide gate;
  - buy 30 s after the gate;
  - 0.3x stop;
  - every exit (stop, 5x, pull, 12 h) sold at the END of the next block after the trigger, so cascades are included;
  - real tick depth, 1% fee each way.

| Size | Mean x first / second | $ a day first / second | Worst day first / second | Worst 3 days first / second | Max drawdown first / second | Green days first / second |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | 2.12 / 1.99 | +1,440 / +1,862 | 0 / -1,574 | 0 / +1,525 | -2,124 / -2,348 | 7 of 14 / 7 of 9 |
| **$1,000** | 2.06 / 1.94 | **+2,733 / +3,535** | 0 / -3,161 | 0 / +2,684 | -4,257 / -4,700 | 7 of 14 / 7 of 9 |
| $2,000 | 1.96 / 1.84 | +4,921 / +6,368 | 0 / -6,367 | 0 / +4,005 | -8,553 / -9,412 | 7 of 14 / 7 of 9 |
| $3,000 | 1.86 / 1.76 | +6,647 / +8,597 | -301 / -9,615 | -137 / +4,151 | -12,884 / -14,137 | 5 of 14 / 7 of 9 |

- First half = 14 to 27 Sep (14 days; 7 of them had no trade). Second half = 28 Sep to 6 Oct (9 days). 70 trades: 28 hit 5x, 34 stopped, 5 pulled, 3 timed out.
- **Max drawdown** = the deepest dip in running profit, with trades in the order they closed. At $1k, plan for about -$4,700 before a new high, in either half.
- **Cost of the frictions vs A2.18** ($1k, buy at +5 s, sell on the trigger swap): +$2,718 / +$4,156 a day before, +$2,733 / +$3,535 now. The second half pays about $620 a day. Most of that is selling one block late (-$164 a day) plus the one knife-edge coin that a 30 s buy loses (0x6c963ce1aff02c18b2d0ef81b96df77b2f53c4ee, see A2.20). The first half is unchanged.
- Tables: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-21-honest-table.csv , per trade http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-21-trades.csv

## The 0xa2508b15ab16826c720631b9afa0a90c453ae8a4 question (my pricer now sells on the next block)
- My pricer now sells at the END of the next block after the trigger, as asked.
- The Coder's trace is right for the 0.6x stop. That coin dipped to 0.593x of the Coder's entry, sat right on the line, and only then crashed to 0.03x.
  - My entry cap is about 1% lower, so my lowest print before the crash is 0.605x and my 0.6x stop never fires. That explains 0.027x vs 0.573x: a 1% entry difference on a knife-edge, not a missing swap.
- **For the live 0.3x stop it does not matter:** both pricers hold through 0.6x and sell after the crash. Here it is 0.03x, already in the table.

## How
- Same 70 wide trades (A2.16).
- Entry: first event at or after gate + 30 s.
- Exits: trade4 rules on in-range liquidity (5x, 0.3x instant stop, pull at half of entry R, 12 h). The sale is priced at the pool state at the end of the first block with events after the trigger block.
- Fills: tick walk (A2.14). $ a day: total over calendar days in each half. Worst 3 days: rolling 3 calendar days.
- Script: container /tmp/w2/a221/honest.py

## First principles score
8/10. Every friction measured so far is in one number, on real depth, in both halves. Still not modelled:
- our own buy changing how other buyers act;
- gas;
- live fills worse than the pool math (A2.11 checks that from the first live trade).

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 16:10 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-21-honest-money.md