# A2.24: the honest money line v2, with the LIVE kit-hold exit (6 Oct 2026, 17:43 Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **For Ben, at $1k a trade: +$3,317 and +$6,683 a day (first half / second half) with kit hold, against +$2,733 and +$3,535 selling everything at 5x (A2.21).**
  - That is +$584 and +$3,148 a day (+21% and +89%).
  - Worst day and max drawdown are unchanged.
- **Honest caveat:** 2 of the 15 kit holds are still open, valued at their last price (11.4x and 9.3x of entry). Valued at the 5x sale instead, the second half is +$5,446 a day (still +54% vs all-out).
- **Capital tied up peaks at 5 tickets** (3 normal + 2 holds) instead of 3. At $1k that is $5k in coins at the worst moment.
- **Wallet check:**
  - In history, **5 × ticket** was always enough cash to take every trade, at every size.
  - Max drawdown was 5.7 tickets, so the 10-ticket kill switch never came close.
  - **The current rule, 8 × ticket + 0.005 ETH, is enough on history.** But in the worst case (4 positions open while the book is down 3+ tickets), cash runs out before the kill switch fires.
  - For "the kill switch is always what stops buying first", the wallet needs **15 × ticket** (5 open + 10 drawdown). At $1k: $15k for that guarantee, $8k is fine on history.

## Table (wide gate, buy gate + 30 s, 0.3x stop, every exit sold at the end of the next block, real depth, slot rule: max 3 normal open + max 2 holds past 5x)

| Size | Exit | Mean x first / second | $ a day first / second | Worst day first / second | Worst 3 days first / second | Max drawdown first / second | Peak open |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| $500 | all out at 5x | 2.12 / 1.99 | +1,440 / +1,862 | 0 / -1,574 | 0 / +1,525 | -2,124 / -2,348 | 3 |
| $500 | **kit hold (live)** | 2.36 / 2.86 | **+1,745 / +3,511** | 0 / -1,574 | 0 / +1,364 | -2,124 / -2,348 | 5 |
| $1,000 | all out at 5x | 2.06 / 1.94 | +2,733 / +3,535 | 0 / -3,161 | 0 / +2,684 | -4,257 / -4,700 | 3 |
| $1,000 | **kit hold (live)** | 2.29 / 2.77 | **+3,317 / +6,683** | 0 / -3,161 | 0 / +2,360 | -4,257 / -4,700 | 5 |
| $2,000 | all out at 5x | 1.96 / 1.84 | +4,921 / +6,368 | 0 / -6,367 | 0 / +4,005 | -8,553 / -9,412 | 3 |
| $2,000 | **kit hold (live)** | 2.17 / 2.61 | **+6,002 / +12,138** | 0 / -6,367 | 0 / +3,357 | -8,553 / -9,412 | 5 |
| $3,000 | all out at 5x | 1.86 / 1.76 | +6,647 / +8,597 | -301 / -9,615 | -137 / +4,151 | -12,884 / -14,137 | 3 |
| $3,000 | **kit hold (live)** | 2.06 / 2.46 | **+8,153 / +16,577** | -137 / -9,615 | -137 / +3,185 | -12,884 / -14,137 | 5 |

- No trade was skipped by the 3-slot limit in either book. No hold was forced to sell by the 2-extra cap.
- Worst 3 days in the second half is a bit lower with kit hold (+$2,360 vs +$2,684 at $1k), because a hold delays its profit into later days.

## The 15 kit holds ($1k, sold at a 50% trail from the peak, a pull or 48 h)
- **Kit A (9):** 3.23x, 8.41x, 6.20x, 9.26x, 4.64x, 2.47x, 6.45x, 3.09x, 11.69x.
- **Kit B (6):** 15.78x, 9.30x, 10.11x, 0.65x, plus 11.36x and 9.25x still open.
- Selling at 5x would have given 4.5x to 4.9x on each. 4 of 15 holds ended under their 5x sale; the worst is 0xb91b4020518cd0cf824dca8291e94cd62c7f0b91 at 0.65x.
- Kit labels: from the pool-creation tx "to" contract's bytecode hash (A1.14 method). Kit A 0e81be52d5cf: 21 of 70 trades. Kit B 89885b75fd29: 15. Other: 34.
- Labels: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-24-kits.csv , table: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-24-book.csv

## How
- Same 70 wide trades and frictions as A2.21.
- Kit hold: at the first 5x print, a Kit A/B coin is held. It is sold at the end of the next block after the first print at or under 50% of the peak since 5x, after a pull (in-range ETH at or under half of entry), or at 48 h from entry. Others are sold at 5x.
- Slot rule: when a hold would make a third extra, it sells at 5x instead (never happened).
- Book in time order. Wallet: cash = wallet + realised P&L − open tickets; a trade is skipped if cash is under 1 ticket.
- Script: container /tmp/w2/a224 (kit.py, kh.py, book.py).

## First principles score
8/10.
- **Strong:** every live rule and friction is in, and it agrees with A3.9 ($3,130 / $6,990 at $1k on their rebuild).
- **Weak:**
  - 15 holds, 6 of them Kit B;
  - 2 holds are still open and valued at their last price;
  - Kit A stopped on 1 Oct, so live holds will be Kit B only.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 17:43 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-24-honest-money-v2.md