# A2.33 Which kit coins run (Analyst 2)

## Read this first (11:15 Bangkok, 7 Oct)
- **Verdict: TOO FEW TO JUDGE by the pre-registered bar, and no cut helps anyway. Keep holding ALL kit coins past 5x (live rule).**
- Sample: 15 kit coins hit 5x in the 70 wide trades. Peak in the 48 h hold window: 5 RUNNERS (20x or more), 3 FADERS (under 10x), 7 in between. The bar was 6 of each.
- Every one-feature cut LOSES to "hold all kit" in both halves at $1k: buyers last 60 min (-$403 / -$797 a day), net buy last 60 min (-$272 / -$956), buyers since launch (-$95 / -$1,541), fast to 5x (-$503 / -$1,403), pool depth (-$297 / -$537), kit A only (0 / -$3,824), kit B only (-$462 / -$953). Selling every kit coin at 5x instead: -$462 / -$4,776 a day. No cut beats 95% of random splits (best 91%, kit B in half B).
- **Why holding all wins (mechanism, from the rows):** holding beat selling at 5x on 11 of 15 coins. The 4 misses cost $1,472 to $3,965 each ($1k ticket); the 11 hits paid $78 to $11,289 each. Total hold minus sell: +$41,935 (+$7,855 half A, +$34,079 half B). A loser can only fall from 5x to the trail; a runner can go to 37.8x. That asymmetry beats any filter we can fit on 15 coins.
- No feature at the 5x moment lines up with the outcome: the 3 faders and 5 runners overlap on every feature (example: fader 0xb91b4020518cd0cf824dca8291e94cd62c7f0b91 had 1,162 buyers in the last hour and $54k net buy, the same as runner 0xee049979960d5e42b389b941ec45790ca7b6e1f7 with 1,295 and $54k).
- Re-test when 20+ kit coins have reached 5x (about 1 a day at the current rate, so in about a week).

## Pre-registered rule (status page 10:50 Bangkok, before results)
- Kit A/B coins among the 70 wide trades that hit 5x under the live sim. RUNNER = peak 20x or more, FADER = under 10x, within the 48 h hold window. Features at the 5x block only: unique buyers last 60 min, net buy $ last 60 min, unique buyers since launch (holder proxy; true holder count is not in our data), minutes gate to 5x, kit A vs B, pool quote reserve $. One feature, cut at the sample median, fixed direction. Cell = hold kit when X, else sell at 5x; $1k, every live friction, slot rule. PASS = above live in BOTH halves (A to 30 Sep, B from 1 Oct), worst day within live minus $1k, beat 95% of 200 random splits. Under 6 RUNNERS or 6 FADERS = too few to judge.

## Rows (all 15 kit coins that hit 5x)
| token | kit | gate day | peak 48 h | x hold | x sell at 5x | buyers 1 h | net buy 1 h | buyers since launch | min to 5x | label |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x0f3e825cdafbacdc552899a1185e5998f2c2ec9c | A | 25 Sep | 7.2 | 3.23 | 4.86 | 608 | $35,850 | 1,257 | 91 | FADER |
| 0xe0cd4e72769e7317891d1e49905878b7b14c67ac | A | 25 Sep | 19.3 | 8.41 | 4.55 | 400 | $34,691 | 1,457 | 221 | mid |
| 0xead015725c6cc0a38cdaea04cb7933210198b830 | A | 25 Sep | 18.4 | 6.20 | 4.94 | 819 | $62,118 | 1,256 | 85 | mid |
| 0xe99c8437b0b29325a4080b8c837ff4e5a6f9fc69 | A | 26 Sep | 20.6 | 9.26 | 4.65 | 681 | $53,685 | 1,580 | 301 | RUNNER |
| 0xc261532bc770c2b4ea10f97f72328aa0fc51b0d0 | A | 27 Sep | 12.3 | 4.64 | 4.56 | 763 | $32,091 | 1,766 | 136 | mid |
| 0x0d974113699e786f4fc56d760ec7f5270b147a88 | A | 29 Sep | 5.5 | 2.47 | 4.78 | 763 | $33,372 | 1,559 | 98 | FADER |
| 0x257723230c9cccf6a2df1e7cf67cffcfcf01eeb8 | A | 30 Sep | 14.3 | 6.45 | 4.47 | 822 | $84,527 | 838 | 24 | mid |
| 0x0f526bdc56d1d764bd744412c1aba039c3728b76 | A | 1 Oct | 14.6 | 3.09 | 4.56 | 408 | $61,377 | 639 | 195 | mid |
| 0xf15aab29c3d22cf2b469d4a9b0c0a72f31ba0711 | A | 1 Oct | 26.1 | 11.69 | 4.50 | 356 | $81,623 | 1,264 | 368 | RUNNER |
| 0xee049979960d5e42b389b941ec45790ca7b6e1f7 | B | 4 Oct | 37.8 | 15.78 | 4.49 | 1,295 | $54,454 | 2,498 | 72 | RUNNER |
| 0x8e41fd25e85e624560fa50ff9f117a02cd30b8b3 | B | 4 Oct | 33.2 | 9.30 | 4.81 | 590 | $46,757 | 1,411 | 79 | RUNNER |
| 0x9ba4d84ac1571a0788b2bb7a6412e73529d12dc6 | B | 5 Oct | 23.0 | 10.11 | 4.69 | 1,664 | $112,722 | 1,664 | 22 | RUNNER |
| 0xb91b4020518cd0cf824dca8291e94cd62c7f0b91 | B | 5 Oct | 5.2 | 0.65 | 4.61 | 1,162 | $54,059 | 3,262 | 167 | FADER |
| 0x224a794031d54e49b46919ade2c55ff255dfdd97 | B | 6 Oct | 14.3 | 11.36 (open) | 4.70 | 1,159 | $28,789 | 2,597 | 115 | mid |
| 0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 | B | 6 Oct | 10.1 | 9.25 (open) | 4.78 | 807 | $176,687 | 807 | 7 | mid |

## Cells ($ a day vs live "hold all kit"; live = +$2,870 half A, +$9,631 half B)
| hold kit only when | coins held | held labels | half A | half B | beats random A / B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| buyers last 60 min high | 9 | 2 R, 2 F, 5 mid | -$403 | -$797 | 13% / 72% |
| net buy last 60 min high | 8 | 3 R, 1 F, 4 mid | -$272 | -$956 | 43% / 74% |
| buyers since launch high | 8 | 3 R, 2 F, 3 mid | -$95 | -$1,541 | 80% / 63% |
| fast to 5x | 8 | 3 R, 2 F, 3 mid | -$503 | -$1,403 | 10% / 65% |
| deep pool | 8 | 2 R, 1 F, 5 mid | -$297 | -$537 | 32% / 84% |
| kit A | 9 | 2 R, 2 F, 5 mid | $0 | -$3,824 | 78% / 3% |
| kit B | 6 | 3 R, 1 F, 2 mid | -$462 | -$953 | 20% / 91% |
| none (sell all kit at 5x) | 0 | none | -$462 | -$4,776 | 0% / 0% |

Worst day unchanged in every cell (-$2,000 / -$3,161). Two half B holds are still open at data end and are marked at a real-sale quote.

## Files
- Rows: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-33-kit5x.csv ; cells: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-33-cells.csv
- Code (container): /tmp/w2/a233/run.py (live book and pricing reused from A2.31, which matches A2.24 exactly).

## First-principles score
- Identity: hold minus sell = (trail exit value minus 5x value) summed over kit coins. It is +$41,935 because the loss per fader is bounded by the trail and the gain per runner is not. A filter only helps if it drops faders without dropping runners; with 5 runners and 3 faders that overlap on every measured feature, no cut can do that reliably.
- Honest limits: 15 coins; holder count proxied by unique buyers; 2 open marks.

Analyst 2, 7 Oct 2026 11:15 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-33-kit-runners.md