# A2.38 Ride with the operator (Analyst 2)

7 Oct 2026, 11:24 Bangkok (server clock). Pre-registered 11:17 in the status page (option c, tape only), before any result.

## Answer
**FAIL. The pre-registered rule makes money on paper, but all of the half B profit comes from 2 coins the live book already holds, and it does not beat random entries.**

- **Rule:** buy 5 s after the 5th "bundle buy" in a new v3 coin. A bundle buy is a wallet's first swap ever. The 5 buys must come within 2 minutes.
  - M = 2 was picked on half A and then frozen.
  - $1k ticket, live exits, run as a separate book.
- **Half A:** +$4,966 a day on 267 trades. **Half B:** +$8,157 a day on 136 trades.
- **Fails the random check:** half B beats random entries at the same cap in only 93% of 200 draws (the bar is 95%).
- **Fails without the top 2 coins:**
  - without the top coin, half B is +$2,965 a day;
  - without the top 2, it is -$1,398 a day;
  - the 2 coins are 0x8e41fd25e85e624560fa50ff9f117a02cd30b8b3 (32.15x, kit hold) and 0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 (27.18x, still open at data end);
  - both are Kit B and both were also bought by the live $1M gate.
- **Worst day:**
  - half A: -$6,467 alone, -$8,467 combined with live. That breaks the -$3,951 line.
  - half B: -$2,659 combined.
- **Clean version (post hoc, not the pre-registered rule):** I kept only entries at a $100k to $50M cap, which removes a look-ahead (see Limits).
  - M = 5: half A +$1,967, half B +$6,941 a day. Beats random 80%. Without the top 2, half B is -$2,614.
  - M = 2: beats random 87%. Without the top 2, half B is -$3,394.
  - It fails the same way.

## What the entry looks like
- **The bundle comes at launch.** The 5th fresh-wallet buy lands a median 0.002 minutes after the pool's first swap: the same few blocks.
  - So this door is "buy at launch, right behind the operator's own bundle".
- **Entry cap after the bundle (pre-registered cell):** 10% of trades at $57k, median $327k, 90% at $1.10M.
- **How trades end:**
  - 28% (A) and 18% (B) reach 5x;
  - the median trade comes back at 0.27x;
  - the profit is a few huge winners carrying many near-zero losers.
- **Overlap:**
  - 16% of these tokens also passed the live $1M gate;
  - 49% are Kit A or B coins;
  - this does not repeat A1.27's $300k kit + fresh + single sender cell.

## The dump risk the Supervisor asked about
- **Bundle wallets selling into us within 30 min of our entry:** 7 of 403 trades (1.7%).
  - Those 7 came back at a mean of 0.18x.
  - The other 396 came back at a mean of 1.35x.
- **So the operator rarely dumps in the first 30 min.** The losses come later, from the coin simply dying (median 0.27x).

## Limits (read before using any number)
- **Look-ahead in my archive:**
  - it only holds tokens whose pool cap EVER reached $100k (filter set when the archive was built);
  - entries below $100k (about 20% of trades) are therefore biased toward survivors;
  - the clean cells above remove this.
- **Pricing split:**
  - 54% of trades are priced at real tick depth. Those are the pools in my tick set, which are pools that later reached a $500k gate, so they also lean to winners. They made +$219k in total;
  - 46% are priced with a constant product on the quote reserve (no tick data). They lost $86k.
  - Exact depth for every pool needs the tick rebuild, which is about 1 h of work.
- **Random pools carry no kit tag,** so they never get the kit hold. That makes the random bar a bit easier to beat, and the rule still missed it.
- **"Fresh" means first swap in my v3 tape.** A wallet that traded on Pons or elsewhere first would count as fresh. The disperse funding itself was not seen (the data route is blocked, see status v53). N (wallets funded) cannot be measured, so the N grid was not run.
- **0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 is still open at data end,** marked at a real-sale quote.

## So what
- **"Buy right behind the bundle" is a lottery ticket book.** It makes money only when a Kit B runner happens, and the live gate already catches those runners at $1M with far fewer losers.
- **This is the same finding as A2.26:**
  - buying earlier adds more dead coins than it adds runner upside;
  - the extra upside sits in the same 2 coins.
- **If we want this door anyway, the next test is:** bundle entry ONLY on Kit A/B coins, priced at real depth for every pool. Do it after the tick rebuild and when 20+ more Kit B launches exist.

## Files
- http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-38-cells.csv (3 cells, every metric)
- http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a2-38-trades.csv (every trade: pool, token, M, entry cap, exit, x, pricing, bundle sold in 30 min, live overlap)