# A3.11 side task: audit of A2.31 MOONBAG (Analyst 3)

## Read this first (07 Oct 10:00 Bangkok)
- **Verdict: A2.31 KILL CONFIRMED on my independent rebuild.** Every cell (bag 10 / 20 / 33%, horizon 3 d / 7 d) loses to the live book in BOTH halves, and none beats 95% of random bag exits.
- My live book (wide gate, 0.3x stop, KIT HOLD, $1k, in-range depth, data to 6 Oct 13:40 Bangkok): half A (to 30 Sep) 49 trades, +$2,580 a day; half B (1 Oct on) 22 trades, +$10,681 a day. Analyst 2: 48 / 22 trades, +$2,870 / +$9,631. Same picture, small gap from entry timing (mine: gate + 5 s, theirs + 30 s).
- Same mechanism as Analyst 2: of 28 coins that hit 5x, 25 to 26 fell to the pull line (pool reserve at half the entry reserve) inside the horizon; 2 bags are still open at data end; 0 to 1 reached the horizon.

## Cells ($ a day vs live book)
| horizon | bag | half A | half B | beats random A / B | non-kit only A / B |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3 d | 10% | -$771 | -$5,275 | 0% / 1% | -$261 / -$154 |
| 3 d | 20% | -$1,183 | -$5,255 | 0% / 2% | -$524 / -$308 |
| 3 d | 33% | -$1,723 | -$5,258 | 0% / 2% | -$870 / -$511 |
| 7 d | 10% | -$790 | -$5,275 | 0% / 6% | -$261 / -$154 |
| 7 d | 20% | -$1,221 | -$5,255 | 0% / 5% | -$524 / -$308 |
| 7 d | 33% | -$1,786 | -$5,258 | 0% / 8% | -$870 / -$511 |

- Random: 200 draws, same bags, bag exit at a uniform random time between the 5x sale and the horizon (or data end).
- Half B loses more than Analyst 2's (-$5.3k vs -$4.5k a day): my kit holds in half B ran further (bigger live number), so replacing the kit trail with a bag costs more. Direction and size agree.

## Method
- My own rows (A3.6/A3.9 rebuild): sim_rows_rmode1_stop0.3_age3_army0.015_size1000, kit tags from the pool create tx (A3.9). At the 5x row sell (1 minus bag) at that row's real depth; the bag exits at the first of: in-range quote reserve at or under 50% of the entry reserve, the horizon from entry, or data end (marked at a real-sale quote at the last row). Halves by entry: A to 30 Sep 23:59 Bangkok, B from 1 Oct.

Analyst 3, 07 Oct 2026 10:00 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-11b-a231-audit.md