# A3.12 Kit coins at the fair $300k milestone: audit (Analyst 3)

## Read this first (07 Oct 10:50 Bangkok)
- **Verdict: SMALLER.** The lead is real in direction: on my data with a full tick walk it makes money in both halves and beats 200 random draws of ALL v3 coins at their fair $300k milestone (100% in A, 99.5% in B). But half A is about 37% smaller than Analyst 1 found ($2,153 vs $3,416 a day), and in half A it earns LESS than the live book on its own ($2,153 vs $2,580).
- **Worth the paper slot: YES.** As a second ticket next to the live book it adds money in both halves: live + kit300k = $4,733 a day (A) and $24,138 (B), against live alone at $2,580 / $10,681.
- **The money sits in a few runners.** The median trade is 0.26x to 0.27x. Without the top 2 trades: A $809 a day, B $3,556.
- **Stops gap.** 142 of 212 trades hit the 0.3x stop. The median fill is 0.258x. 60 fills are under 0.25x, 35 under 0.2x, 19 under 0.1x, and the worst is 0.001x. Real fills sit below the 0.3x line.
- Kit B carries half B (94 of 107 trades) and is thin without its best two coins (-$501 a day). The 3,587 family is small (14 coins) but positive: 2.12x mean in A, 2.91x in B.

## Results ($1k a ticket, both halves on the live book's days, half B to 6 Oct 13:40 Bangkok)
| half | trades | mean x | median x | $ a day | no top 1 | no top 2 | worst day | beats random (200) | live alone | live + kit300k |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A (to 30 Sep) | 91 | 1.43 | 0.26 | +$2,153 | +$1,426 | +$809 | -$4,535 | 100% | +$2,580 (worst -$2,000) | +$4,733 |
| B (1 Oct to 6 Oct 13:40) | 107 | 1.70 | 0.27 | +$13,457 | +$8,403 | +$3,556 | -$2,013 | 99.5% | +$10,681 (worst -$1,502) | +$24,138 |
| B full (to 7 Oct 09:39) | 121 | 1.60 | 0.27 | +$11,317 | +$6,920 | +$2,703 | -$2,013 | 99.5% | (book data ends 6 Oct 13:40) | |

- Analyst 1 had: A $3,416 (85 trades), B $14,471 (92 trades), live $3,117 / $12,038.
- Random pool: every coin with a fair $300k milestone in the same half, with the same entry and exits (kit hold only for kit coins). There are 343 coins in A (mean 0.94x) and 162 in B (mean 1.28x).
- By launcher: half A is Kit A 87 trades (+$1,908 a day) and 3,587 family 4 (+$245); half B is Kit B 94 (+$9,400), 3,587 family 10 (+$3,436) and Kit A 3 (+$621).
- Exits: 142 stop, 47 kit hold trail, 18 pull, 3 time, 2 still open (priced at the last state).
- Entry caps: median $499k, from $306k (10th percentile) to $1.18M (90th).
- Top trades: 0x8e41fd25e85e624560fa50ff9f117a02cd30b8b3 Kit B 29.15x (entry $326k); 0x9ba4d84ac1571a0788b2bb7a6412e73529d12dc6 Kit B 28.00x ($328k); 0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 Kit B 16.17x ($671k); 0x257723230c9cccf6a2df1e7cf67cffcfcf01eeb8 Kit A 14.31x ($485k); 0xba1a2d9783ebe2b76493c5c12eb9813a0e062843 3,587 family 13.64x ($727k); 0x224a794031d54e49b46919ade2c55ff255dfdd97 Kit B 13.35x ($1.30M, open at data end).

## Why my half A is smaller than Analyst 1's
- Fills: every buy and sell walks the pool's real positions tick by tick (rebuilt from Mint/Burn tick ranges) at the end of the trigger block. Virtual-reserve depth overstates exit size when price crosses out of a kit's narrow range. That hits the stop exits hardest: median fill 0.258x vs the 0.3x line.
- Days: my half A counts 18.3 days (data from 12 Sep 16:29), Analyst 1 counts 17; that alone makes my $ a day about 7% lower.
- Universe: 91 half A kit trades vs Analyst 1's 85, from my own launcher tags (pool create tx `to` code hash; 3,587 family = code length 3,587 or hash 51d0e39db2ed / 2696b754c8e3 / 60341fa374bf). One half A coin could not be tagged (RPC) and is left out.

## Method
- Universe: all 526 tokens in my rebuild (Uniswap v3 WETH/USDG, raw chain events from the public RPC, data 12 Sep 16:29 to 7 Oct 09:39 Bangkok) that reached a fair $300k: $15k of buys at a cap of $300k or more, on the token's first pool to get there.
- Entry: the first swap at least 30 s after the milestone, $1k, with the pool's own fee (1%). Live exits: 0.3x stop, 5x target, pull (in-range quote reserve at or under half of entry), 12 h; kit coins (A, B, 3,587) hold past 5x on a 50% trail from the peak, or pull, or 48 h. Triggers are read on swap prices. Fills are priced by the tick walk at the end of the trigger block. Kit labels come from the pool create tx only, so they use no hindsight.
- Live book for comparison: my wide-gate rows (A3.6, A3.9), KIT HOLD, $1k, data to 6 Oct 13:40 Bangkok. Days: A = 12 Sep 16:29 to 30 Sep 24:00, B = 1 Oct to the book's end.
- Check: on 18 of 212 traded pools my rebuilt active liquidity differs from the swap's own liquidity by more than 1% (cause not traced yet). Those fills can be off by a little.
- Compute ran on Ben's Mac (not on main), per bus v1.3.

Analyst 3, 07 Oct 2026 10:50 Bangkok. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-12-kit300k.md