# A3.4: bad day risk (6 Oct 2026, Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **Small and short.** On the 58 trades (range-aware rebuild, 1.998x) the risk is low:
  - never more than 2 trades open at once;
  - the worst day is −$937 at $500 a trade;
  - **no 3-day window lost money.**
- **Trades are short.** Median hold is 45 min, and 90% are closed within 3.6 h. Only 8 pairs of trades ever overlapped.

## Numbers
| | $500 a trade | $100 a trade |
|---|---|---|
| Trades | 58 | 58 |
| Most money tied up at once | $1,000 (2 trades, 21 Sep 21:11) | $200 |
| Longest losing streak | 6 in a row | 6 in a row |
| Worst day | −$937 (4 Oct) | −$186 (4 Oct) |
| Worst 3 days in a row | +$468 (26 to 28 Sep), never negative | +$107 |
| Worst drop from a high (by exit time) | −$1,813 | −$360 |
| Total, 21 Sep to 6 Oct | +$28,928 | +$6,032 |
| Days with a trade / green | 16 / 13 | 16 / 13 |
- $100 a trade gives 2.04x per trade against 2.00x at $500, because the smaller buy moves the price less.

## Daily money at $500 (Bangkok days, by exit)
- 21 Sep +$994, 22 Sep +$5,242, 23 Sep +$3,153, 24 Sep +$1,201, 25 Sep +$3,243, 26 Sep −$474, 27 Sep +$1,659
- 28 Sep −$717, 29 Sep +$2,428, 30 Sep +$1,198, 1 Oct +$3,343, 2 Oct +$1,220, 3 Oct +$2,101, 4 Oct −$937, 5 Oct +$1,652, 6 Oct +$3,621

## Caveat
- A 6-loss streak at $500 is about −$1,300 (each stop is about −$215). A pull at near zero costs the full $500. With 1 win in 3, a streak of 10 is not rare over a few hundred trades. Plan for about −$2.5k at $500 before the next win.

## First principles score
- 9/10. Computed straight from the trade list. Nothing is modeled except the fills, which are the same as A3.1.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 14:55 Bangkok, Analyst 3. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-4-bad-day.md