# A3.8: should LIVE switch to ladder (b)? (6 Oct 2026, Bangkok)

## Read this first
- **Verdict: KEEP (a), all out at 5x.** Under the Supervisor's rule, (b) fails two of the three tests in the first half.
  - It loses 11% of $/day there ($2,362 vs $2,666), and the limit is 5%.
  - Its worst first-half day is worse (−$781 vs +$207).
  - It does win big in the second half: $5,667 vs $3,687 a day.
- (b) is a bet that the second-half market (winners keep running) continues. That is the same bet as V7, with a fixed half size. The first half is where it pays to sell.

## My rebuild: wide gate ($1M, age 3 h, top 0.08, army 0.015), stop 0.3x, $1k, range-aware depth
| | Mean x A / B | $/day A / B | Worst day A / B | Worst 3 days A / B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) all out at 5x | 2.01 / 1.98 | +$2,666 / +$3,687 | +$207 / −$2,000 | +$10,352 / +$3,297 |
| (b) 50% at 5x, 50% on a 50% trail (exit on pull or at 48 h) | 1.89 / 2.50 | +$2,362 / +$5,667 | −$781 / −$2,000 | +$11,565 / +$3,917 |
- Trades: 37 in the first half (14 days), 34 in the second (9 days).
- 1 trailed half is still open at data end (6 Oct 13:41 Bangkok), so the second half for (b) is not final.
- Virality V6 on the same cell had (b) at 2.13x / 2.64x. On mine the first half is lower (1.89x), because most first-half 5x coins were trailed out at 2.4x to 3.8x (see A3.7, held column).

## Verdict rule check
| Test | Result |
|---|---|
| (b) loses 5% or less of $/day in half A | **No**, −11.4% |
| (b) worst day no worse than (a) in both halves | **No** in half A (−$781 vs +$207). Equal in half B. |
| (b) gains in half B | Yes, +54% |

## First principles score
- 8/10. Same independent rebuild as A3.1 to A3.7. Both legs of (b) are priced at real depth at their own exit moment.

Version 1, 6 Oct 2026 16:02 Bangkok, Analyst 3. Latest: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-a3-8-ladder-b.md