# STOP: NO DOORBELLS, NO WAKES, NO SCHEDULING (Ben, 7 Oct 2026, 18:40 Bangkok)
- Credits ran out. Ben switched off every scheduled task and every doorbell. This overrides everything below and every other file (wake-howto, bus-howto, credit-playbook, task files).
- PROHIBITED for every session: fire_trigger, send_later, create_trigger, update_trigger, ScheduleWakeup. No rings, no nudges, no re-arming, no new doorbells, no self wakes, no safety checks, no retry rings, no loops.
- Finish the step you are on, publish your status file, then END your turn and wait. Only Ben wakes you, by typing in your window.
- Do not message other sessions. Keep answers short. No extra improvement rounds.

# Virality Expert: status

## READ THIS FIRST
- **11:18 Bangkok 7 Oct: PAUSED (Supervisor v2.17, credit rule). No checks scheduled. Doorbell trig_01CjAVZuTagbUhKHXAXGRc4z stays live; ring it for a new off-chain idea.**
- **11:10 Bangkok 7 Oct: V17 FIRST WAVE BY ROUTER KILLED. 97.1% of pre-gate buy $ goes through SwapRouter02 0xcaf681a66d020601342297493863e78c959e5cb2, mostly via one shared web front 0xf2a277490c6e1d511e236c64895a0fef39aa8098; no Telegram bot class visible.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v17.md
  - Entry f1>0 (chosen on A): A +$4,769 vs live +$5,075 (41%), B = live. FAIL. Hold (>=1% non-SwapRouter02 gate to 5x): A +$4,778 (92%), B +$5,407 vs +$8,762 (62%). FAIL.
  - 10x coins had LESS non-standard buying before the gate (median 0.1 to 0.2% vs 0.3 to 0.4%). The first wave is plain wallets on the web front: next step is WHO (A3.11 wallet cohort), not WHICH app.
  - e1-runners.csv not on the bus yet; Telegram channel log has no read route. Prereg line v1.20 stamped 11:12 was published 11:06 (stamp ran ahead).
- **11:12 Bangkok 7 Oct: V17 FIRST WAVE started. Router map done (no outcomes looked at). PRE-REGISTERED before any outcome is joined:**
  - Map (descriptive): 93,322 pre-gate buys, $32.5M, 69 coins. By the contract that called the pool: SwapRouter02 0xcaf681a66d020601342297493863e78c959e5cb2 97.1% of $ (93% of txs sent to the thin front 0xf2a277490c6e1d511e236c64895a0fef39aa8098, 1.6 KB, exactInputSingle only, no fee leg, 597 signers on one coin = a shared web front, not a Telegram bot); UniversalRouter 0x8876789976decbfcbbbe364623c63652db8c0904 2.3%; small direct-pool contracts 0x65050a9b7e5075a2ba5ced7b1b64ee66262c40dc (752 B) and 0xed7ec83185b3cdac50685999a35ab26d30c20583 (4.2 KB) 0.3%; 0x Settler 0x6aa80dbbed9ae5ab45fbf61f9644fada3b29326e (fomo path) 0.1%. Telegram bot routers as a separate class: not visible on chain.
  - Feature f1 = share of pre-gate buy $ NOT sent by SwapRouter02 (UniversalRouter + direct-pool bots + aggregators). Feature f2 = minutes from the first non-SwapRouter02 buy to the gate.
  - Entry cuts chosen on half A only: f1 > 0 / >= 1% / >= 5%, f2 >= 30 / 60 / 120 min (each feature alone, best one on A). Hold rule: f1 measured gate to 5x, same cuts, hold on trail if yes.
  - Same pricing as V15/V16 ($1k, real depth, every A2.21 friction). PASS = both halves beat live AND beat 95% of 200 random draws.
- **10:31 Bangkok 7 Oct: V16 FOMO KILLED (pre-registered fast kill). 0 of 15 coins that went 10x had any fomo app trade before the gate; their first fomo trade came a median 54 min (A) / 135 min (B) after it.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v16.md
  - Entry "skip coins with fomo traders before the gate": A +$5,244 vs live +$5,075 (beats random 96%), B +$8,558 vs +$8,762 (87%). FAIL.
  - Hold past 5x if 3+ fomo buyers gate to 5x: A +$4,078, B +$3,099 vs live. FAIL both halves.
  - New: fomo has a second router 0x0da5899dbb36bd741885d4228f04cd9c6304fc56 (same event, same fee wallets as 0x039ec98a76f111092d4751365ff09dd2aec301e8), the only one in use from about 1 Oct. Tools that only know the old one see no fomo trades in October.
  - Next: V17 (who buys before the gate, by router).
- **10:04 Bangkok 7 Oct: V16 FOMO started. PRE-REGISTERED before any fomo data is pulled:**
  - Coins: the same 69 wide-gate trades, priced exactly as V15 (live exit, $1k, real depth, every A2.21 friction). Halves A to 30 Sep, B from 1 Oct.
  - Data: fomo.family token page per coin (built-in browser): every thesis post with its time and author; holder count (today only, so lookahead: descriptive, never a rule).
  - Features: n_pre = thesis posts before the gate; n_g5 = thesis posts gate to 5x; t_first = first thesis post minus gate (min).
  - Fast kill (Supervisor v2.16): if the median 10x coin has its first thesis post AFTER the gate, fomo lags like X: KILL in one line.
  - Else: entry cut n_pre >=1 / >=2 / 0 (quiet), hold rule n_g5 >= k, k in 1/2/3, both chosen on half A only. PASS = both halves beat live AND beat 95% of 200 random draws.
- **09:57 Bangkok 7 Oct: V15 X PULSE KILLED (both pre-registered rules). 10x coins are silent on X before the gate; X follows the price by 0.5 to 2 h.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v15.md
  - 10x coins with any X author before the gate: 0 of 10 (half A), 1 of 5 (half B). Only 7% of posts land before the gate.
  - Entry "quiet only" (chosen on A): +$5,097 / +$8,745 a day vs live +$5,075 / +$8,762; beats random 86% / 92%. Fails.
  - Hold past 5x if 2+ X authors between the gate and 5x (chosen on A): +$4,988 / +$5,022 vs live +$5,075 / +$8,762. Fails both halves.
  - Next: V16 (fomo thesis posts and holders). e1-runners.csv descriptive check when PP rings.
- **09:52 Bangkok 7 Oct: V15 X PULSE started. PRE-REGISTERED before any new X data is pulled:**
  - Coins: the 69 wide-gate trades since 21 Sep (sw-a2-16-wide-trades.csv), priced as in V13 (live exit, $1k, real depth, every A2.21 friction). PP's e1-runners.csv ($3M+) is added as a descriptive check when it lands.
  - X data: twitterapi.io, full contract query AND $ticker query. A ticker post counts only if it names the full contract, the pool, or the coin's own X handle, or the author is the coin's own account. Windows: launch to gate, gate to gate + 6 h, in 15 min bins.
  - Prior knowledge (disclosed): V9 found 57 of 69 had zero contract posts in the 24 h before the gate. The ticker search is the new part.
  - Entry rule E: distinct X authors from launch to the gate. Cut chosen on half A ONLY from {at least 1, 2, 3, 5} and the reverse (quiet only), by $ a day; frozen and applied to half B.
  - Hold rule H (all 5x coins): distinct X authors from the gate to the 5x moment. Cut k chosen on half A only from {1, 2, 3, 5}: at least k, hold all on the 50% trail, else sell at 5x. Frozen for half B.
  - Halves: A = 21 to 30 Sep, B = 1 Oct on (sprint split). PASS = beats the live book in $ a day in BOTH halves, beats 95% of 200 random picks of the same size, worst day no worse than live. Anything else is a KILL.
  - Descriptive: 10x coins (peak after gate at least 10x gate cap, 48 h) vs the rest on the same two features, both halves.
- **19:21 Bangkok: V14 CLOSED as an exit rule.** Net buy $ in the hour before 5x splits runners (5 of 6 vs 1 of 5 in half B, beats 100% of random splits), but priced as an exit it loses to live kit hold in half A (+$2,956 vs +$3,331/day). 'Kit OR net-buy' is a paper tag for half C. http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v14.md
- **19:12 Bangkok: V13 CLOSED. The regime rule on non-kit coins on top of kit hold loses $288/day in half A and beats random holds only 62% / 73%.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v13.md (V12 skipped per v2.13.)
- **18:25 Bangkok: V10 rechecked on PP's new buyer data (pp3-series 18:24). Still killed: PP flags 24 slow-burn coins, priced trades 0.27x to 1.04x, none above 1.04x.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v10.md
- **17:50 Bangkok: V10 money test KILLED, V11 not possible, V3 spread patterns done, V4 v0.3 retracted.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v10.md
  - Buy at hour 8 after $500k (pre-registered rule), $1k, real depth: 0.40x / 0.42x, −$519 / −$250 a day. Not one trade reached 4x after hour 8.
  - V4 v0.3 error: 11 of 50 coins have overflowed max caps in pp3, and 15 of 34 slow-burn coins were already $2M to $40M at crossing. Retracted.
  - V11: only 3 of 69 wide trades are still held at hour 8. Nothing to add to.
  - V3: about 80% of fair coins are "flash" (buyer wave over by hour 4); late snowball is rare (13 of 416). The $1M gate already sits where the money is.
  - For PP: 13 tokens with max_cap above $10B listed in the doc.
- **16:40 Bangkok: V4 redone on PP's fixed pp3-cross (50 fair coins, 23 at $20M+).** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v4.md
  - $20M+ coins keep pulling new buyers in hours 4 to 8 (18 vs 2.5 an hour; 43 vs 3) with bigger buys ($24 vs $9; $142 vs $7). Hour 1 does not separate them. Second half has only 3 big coins.
  - Money test on all fair $500k coins waits for PP's rerun of pp3-series.
- **16:24 Bangkok: V9 X before the gate (side task). NOT a filter.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v9.md
  - 57 of 69 wide trades had zero X posts by contract in the 24 h before the gate; the pre-gate posts are mostly paid/vote/scam bots. Skipping loud coins loses $ a day in the first half ($1,387 vs $1,612).
  - DexScreener paid profile before the gate and X posts in the first hour after: no signal in both halves. Next: V3 spread patterns; V4 when PP rings.
- **16:09 Bangkok: V8 kit split. At 5x, "hold on a 50% trail if Kit A or Kit B, else sell" beats all out at 5x in BOTH halves.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v8.md
  - $500: 2.48x / 3.15x ($1,905 / $3,934 a day) vs 2.25x / 1.88x ($1,612 / $1,620). $1k: $3,638 / $7,546 vs $3,068 / $3,054.
  - First-half position-manager 5x coins: holding 0 of 10 better. Kit coins ran in both halves. 13 holds total; only Kit B is active now. Proposed paper book w2_v3_kit_hold.
- **16:02 Bangkok: V7 lookahead check done (resolved = held version fully exited).** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v7.md
  - Main 58 at $500: 2.33x / 3.09x (vs 2.34x / 1.88x). Wide 70: same as before, 2.16x / 3.45x at $500, $2,833 / $8,640 a day at $1k. No lookahead in the edge.
- **15:58 Bangkok: V6 + V7 on the wide list done.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6w.md
  - $500: all out at 5x 2.25x / 1.88x; (b) 50% at 5x + trail 2.17x / 2.71x; regime rule 2.16x / 3.45x ($1,491 / $4,500 a day). $1k: regime $2,833 / $8,640 a day vs $3,068 / $3,054 for all out at 5x.
  - No exit beats all out at 5x in the first half. Regime rule beats (b) in both halves (A is a tie). Paper only.
  - Stops: my pricer already exits on the real crossing swap at depth (the 3 flagged trades: 0.29x stop, 0.30x pull, 0.44x pull).
- **15:44 Bangkok: V7 done. A regime signal known at the 5x moment works on this data: hold on a trail if 30%+ of the last 4 days' resolved 5x coins paid more held, else sell at 5x.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v7.md
  - First half 2.34x (= today's rule, it never holds), second half 3.09x (vs 1.88x sell-at-5x, 2.51x for ladder b). Walk-forward, but only ONE regime switch seen. Paper first.
- **15:40 Bangkok: V4 on the fair list (pp3-cross.csv) is not testable yet.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v4.md
  - 14 of 43 fair $5M+ coins are event-less clones of 0xa604bed22a88ae9814476997a619c6eb876f2cc7 (no Transfer logs at all). **Ask PP:** flag that class.
  - 12 more show no buyers around their pp3 crossing (time or pool likely off). Only 17 usable, thin coins remain.
  - Moving to V3 and the X-before-gate side task.
- **15:24 Bangkok: V6 done on the 58 main trades. No ladder beats all out at 5x in BOTH halves.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6.md
  - First half: 5x all out is best (2.34x). Second half: holding wins (50% at 5x + trail 2.51x vs 1.88x; all trail after 3x 3.19x), carried by 4 coins that ran 48 h unpulled.
  - Paper-book candidate if wanted: (b) 50% at 5x, rest on a 50% trail.
  - **Ask Analyst 2:** per-trade csv of the A2.16 wide cell, so I can run it too.
  - Empty-pool coin 0x0f526bdc56d1d764bd744412c1aba039c3728b76 removed (price 1,000x+ on $2.8k depth, model unreliable).
- **14:54 Bangkok: V4 first pass (my own set, survivor-skewed).** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v4.md
  - $20M+ vs $5 to 20M, both halves: fewer but bigger buyers, more $5k+ buys in hours 4 to 8, lower top-10 share, more snowball spells.
  - No money test yet. I redo it on pp3.db the moment I can reach it (still need a link).
- **14:50 Bangkok: answer to v2.5. 0xabe99cf268cdc8bd70a71a5283fdacbcb36714fd is a TOKEN, not a wallet:** symbol NOSH, 1,000,000,000 supply, 18 decimals, 3,554 bytes of code, its own v3 pool 0xb6fe1035f6edfaeb7a9f7d4c19e11d35b3bd7c57 (fee 100, WETH). It is the same pool as in the v3 trades csv. A1.11 lists it as one of the 3 COINS farm 1 pumped (the farm wallets are different addresses).
  - With A1.11's 6 farm coins removed, the result holds: no stop A 2.33x (n21) / B 2.19x (n31); stop 0.3x 2.33x / 2.07x; current stop 0.6x 2.30x / 1.89x.
  - Moving on to V4.
- **14:41 Bangkok: V5 DONE. The 0.6x stop kills winners. With no stop, the v3 rule makes 2.20x (first half) and 2.19x (second half), above 1.99x in both.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v5.md
  - 21 of 34 stopped trades later hit 2x and 5 hit 5x before any pull. Looser is better at every step (0.5, 0.4, 0.3, none), both halves.
  - Cost: losers end near 0.13x on pulls. Entry must stay at gate + 5 s (at + 60 s the second half drops to 1.89x).
  - Pricer for the Coder: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/code/pricer.tar.gz (no research-box access here).
- Next: V4 ($5M vs $20M) on the fair list. Needs the route to research-box /opt/sw/pp3.db, or a public copy of the cross table.
- **14:30 Bangkok: V1.1, V1.2, V1.3 and v2.2 DONE. The hour-4 rule FAILS real-money pricing. Do not ship it.** http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v11.md
  - Swap by swap with $500 fills and pulls: first half +35% average, second half +2% average (middle trade −26%), 21 Sep to 4 Oct −15% (middle −39%).
  - Lane test: a pull within 30 s after an outside $300 to $800 buy happens 0.040% of the time vs 0.027% after any swap. Not a honeypot lane.
  - V1.2: 1 of 58 v3 trades overlaps. What the hour-4 rule adds in the same period: 30 trades, −13% average. Adds nothing.
  - V1.3: copy bots before the v3 gate are almost absent (median 1 of about 500 buyers). Not a filter.
  - v2.2: crew repeat wallets are under 1% of new buyers after $500k. Results unchanged.
- 13:10 Bangkok: V1 follow links and V2 snowball map, first pass. http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v1.md

## Doorbell
- trig_01CjAVZuTagbUhKHXAXGRc4z (Doorbell: Virality Expert)

## Now
- V4 $5M vs $20M, then V3 spread patterns and the X-before-gate side task.

## Asks for Supervisor
- Please share pp3.db (table cross, and path series when ready) as a public link, or tell me how to reach research-box. Still useful from Price Predict: the fair all-venue crossing list, the signed buy tape after 30 min, and trending snapshots.

## Needs Ben
- Nothing.

Last update: 7 Oct 2026, 11:18 Bangkok (v1.22, paused). Latest version: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-status.md