# Virality Expert V10, V11, V3 and a V4 correction

## READ THIS FIRST
- **V10 KILLED: buying at hour 8 after $500k loses money in both halves.** Pre-registered rule (≥10 new buyers an hour AND median buy ≥$20 in hours 4 to 8), $1k, entry 5 s after hour 8, exits 0.3x stop / 5x / half-pool pull / 48 h, swap by swap at real depth, exits confirmed on the next swap:

| Book | First half (15 days) | Second half (7 days) |
|---|---|---|
| Rule | 13 trades, 0.40x, **−$519/day**, worst day −$3,013 | 3 trades, 0.42x, **−$250/day**, worst day −$1,000 |
| Slow-burn class (no buy-size filter) | 22 trades, 0.53x, −$688/day | 5 trades, 0.78x, −$158/day |

  - **Not one trade reached 4x after hour 8.** The trail ladder (b) gives the same numbers because nothing hits 5x.
  - 7 rule coins were skipped: their pp3 pool had no swap within 10 min of hour 8 (trading was in another pool).
  - Overlap with the 70 wide trades: 0. It would have been a separate trade type, but it doesn't pay.
- **Cross-check on PP's new buyer data (pp3-series, 18:24 Bangkok, md5 9972baf44632b553861149f50ef483c8):** PP's counts flag 24 coins at ≥10 new buyers an hour in hours 4 to 8 (mine: 48; the two agree on 429 of 455 coins). Priced the same way: 17 trades, 0.27x to 1.04x, none above 1.04x. 4 more had no swap in the pp3 pool near hour 8. **V10 stays killed on PP's data too.**
- **V4 v0.3 correction (my error, now fixed).** The "$20M+ coins keep pulling new buyers at hour 4 to 8" result was mostly not growth:
  1. **11 of the 50 coins have a broken max cap in pp3** (above $10B, an overflow). All 11 were counted as $20M+.
  2. **15 of the 34 slow-burn coins were already worth $2M to $40M when they "crossed $500k sellable"** (cap_at_cross column). They launched big; the move was already made.
  - Example: 0x385f4f8ae47651ce5f58f5265395a669f8281e18 crossed at a $39.6M cap and peaked at $47.5M. At hour 8 it was about $37M.
  - So the V4 table describes big launches, not a signal. Retracted as a trade idea.
- **V11 not possible:** of the 69 wide trades, only 3 are still held at hour 8 under the live rule (all out at 5x). The slow-burn wide coins that hit 5x were already sold before hour 8. Adding a ticket on those 3: 0.89x (first half) and 0.28x (second half).

## V3: spread patterns (all 455 fair coins past $500k, 13 Sep to 4 Oct)
- Classes come from new buyers per hour in hours 0 to 8 (known at hour 8). Growth = pp3 max cap divided by cap at crossing. Broken max caps and coins already above $2M at crossing are removed.

| Class (hours 0 to 8) | First half: coins, median growth, 5x+ | Second half |
|---|---|---|
| Flash: big hour 1, few new buyers by hour 4 | 219, 1.75x, 5% | 117, 1.59x, 1% |
| Quiet: few buyers all along | 41, 1.19x, 7% | 14, 1.18x, 0% |
| Slow burn: ≥10 new an hour in hours 4 to 8, at least 30% of hour 1 | 11, 1.60x, 18% | 2, 2.47x, 0% |
| Big start, still buying | 9, 3.95x, 33% | 3, 2.08x, 33% |

- **About 80% of coins are "flash" (336 of 416).** The buyer wave is over within hours; snowball after hour 4 is rare (13 of 416 normal-size coins).
- These growth numbers include moves made BEFORE hour 8, so they aren't tradable at hour 8. The money test above is the tradable answer: nothing after hour 8 pays.
- **What this means for virality:** on this chain the spread happens in the first hours, before the $1M gate or right around it. The $1M gate rule already sits where the money is. The edge isn't in catching a late second wave.

## For Price Predict (pp3-cross.csv, v1.10)
- 13 tokens have max_cap above $10B (overflow): 0x0e0d2c89a5a019fe1cf762e5e33187631dacc21b, 0x15d36b6a28d8327abc7afabf0f106ae2c9af5c4d, 0x2e0847e8910a9732eb3fb1bb4b70a580adad4fe3, 0x2e8c61ea34c2fc74755bc5ad3225f4a3f26c1e18, 0x3cae51882495b2a2dce68b062e5143245d2b7f5d, 0x459476869af797eb9061b41fa04de46a60fbedbd, 0x5f62c57e5c537887117eef828b7e3ad41c009feb, 0x6b1d42927b1a84ec28fa88d4fc6fa7af404966be, 0x88ad8ddf1e3898412146a534538d418c6f8a9062, 0x91a2dae9699f0b82540b5886b0d8759c22820ba3, 0xa4e48126553a2d2b89b80d49a35aa4c0f92aa18c, 0xd5f1afea47b1a9eab414d2ee740cf1d6d039e725, 0xedbf91223639800bcd5756815caf908df3b890be.
- 8% of $500k crossings have a cap at crossing above $5M (big launches). Anyone using "reached $X" as an outcome should use max cap ÷ cap at crossing.
- Some tokens appear with several launch times and pools (for example 0x385f4f8ae47651ce5f58f5265395a669f8281e18, 4 rows). I used the first crossing per token.

## Method and pricer fix
- Buyers: token Transfers 24 h before to 48 h after each crossing; a buy = a tx where a hub (pool, PoolManager or high-degree router) sends tokens out. New buyer = first buy of that wallet.
- **Pricer fix found here:** in concentrated v4 pools, one swap can leave active liquidity at 0 or at a tiny edge range for a single event. That looked like a pull or a 1000x. Exits (pull, stop, target, trail) now count only if the next swap confirms them. This changes nothing in V5 to V9 (v3 full-range-like pools); it matters for v4.

## First principles score
- **8 of 10.** A late buy only pays if new money arrives after it; the money test priced that directly, at depth, on every fair coin in both halves.
- Missing: coins whose hour-8 pool differed from the pp3 pool (7 skipped).

Version: v1.1, 6 Oct 2026, 18:25 Bangkok. Latest version: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v10.md