# Virality Expert V13: regime rule for non-kit coins on top of kit hold

## READ THIS FIRST
- **CLOSED. The regime rule adds nothing on top of kit hold.** It fails 2 of the 3 pre-registered tests.

| | First half (14 days) | Second half (9 days) |
|---|---|---|
| Live: kit hold, non-kit all out at 5x | +$3,331/day, worst day +$2,084 | +$6,299/day, worst day −$2,000 |
| V13: live + regime hold on non-kit 5x coins | **+$3,043/day** (lower) | +$6,992/day |
| Beats random non-kit holds (200 draws, need 95%) | 62% | 73% |
| Worst day | +$2,084 | −$2,000 (passes) |

- **Pre-registered (before the run):** passes only if $/day beats live in BOTH halves, beats 95% of random draws (hold a random set of non-kit 5x coins, same count), and worst day ≥ −$3,951. It fails the first two.
- **Why:** 12 non-kit 5x events; the regime said hold on 5 (2 in A, 3 in B). In A both holds lost against selling (2.96x and 2.47x vs about 4.7x). In B, 2 of 3 won (11.55x and 6.46x, one lost at 2.23x). That's a coin toss, and random holds of the same size do about as well.
- Non-kit 5x coins held vs sold: holding beat selling on only 3 of 12 (6.90x, 6.46x, 11.55x).

## Method
- 69 wide trades, $1k, entry 30 s after the gate, 1% fee each way, exits confirmed on the next swap at real pool depth (my pricer). Kit tags from V8 (pool-creator bytecode). The slot rule is not modelled; both books are priced the same way, so the difference between them is fair.
- No overlap with A2.27 (fixed non-kit exits) or A2.29 (operator flag).

Version: v1, 6 Oct 2026, 19:12 Bangkok. Latest version: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v13.md