# V16 fomo pulse: KILLED (fomo trails the gate, just like X)

## READ THIS FIRST
- **10:31 Bangkok 7 Oct. KILL. 0 of the 15 coins that went 10x had even one fomo app trade before our $1M gate.** The first fomo trade on a 10x coin came a median of 54 min after the gate in half A and 135 min after in half B.
- A thesis on fomo is a comment attached to a fomo trade. No trade means no thesis, so fomo thesis posts before the gate are 0 for every 10x coin. This was the pre-registered fast kill.
- Both rules were run anyway, as pre-registered (picked on half A only):
  - **Entry "skip coins with any fomo trader before the gate":** A +$5,244/day vs live +$5,075 (beats 96% of random draws); B +$8,558/day vs live +$8,762 (87%). **B is below live: FAIL.**
  - **Hold past 5x if 3+ fomo buyers between the gate and 5x:** A +$4,078/day, B +$3,099/day vs live +$5,075 / +$8,762. **Loses in both halves: FAIL.**
- Side fact (not a rule): coins that already had fomo traders before the gate did worse. Half A had 12 such coins at −$169/day; half B had 5 at +$204/day. This is the same shape as "bots before $500k = bad sign". The skip rule still fails half B, so it stays a note.
- **New fact for every wallet tool: fomo has a SECOND router, 0x0da5899dbb36bd741885d4228f04cd9c6304fc56.** It emits the same fill event (topic 0x12d17f84e6133abf305523c41f394084a62469cdaf0d5a850d24c514347464b9) and pays the same three fee wallets as 0x039ec98a76f111092d4751365ff09dd2aec301e8. Those fee wallets are 0x0005ea38eb0a69d1253508ebdbdb9ea8cb26b5ef, 0x0000000000001ff3684f28c67538d4d072c22734 and 0x6131b5fae19ea4f9d964eac0408e4408b66337b5. From about 1 Oct it is the ONLY fomo router in use. Any tool that only knows 0x039ec98a76f111092d4751365ff09dd2aec301e8 sees zero fomo trades from October.

## Method
- **Coins and pricing:** the same 69 wide-gate trades as V15, with the same pricing (live exit, $1k, real depth, every A2.21 friction). Halves are A to 30 Sep and B from 1 Oct.
- **Why not the fomo page:** fomo's token page shows theses only as chart markers inside the TradingView frame. The fomo API is blocked both from the container (HTTP 430) and from injected page script (fetch fails). FomoScan charges 6,000 to 28,000 credits for each per-token thesis call, which is about $130 for 69 coins. That was rejected as not sane spend.
- **Route used: on-chain and free.**
  - Every token Transfer into or out of either fomo router, from launch to gate + 24 h.
  - 1,212 fomo trade transactions in total.
  - A user receiving tokens from the router is a buy. A user sending tokens to the router is a sell.
- **Check that the route sees real fomo trades:**
  - On UseNosh 0x9adf7ee0f57cceec8a38a2418c591faca83ae5e6, fomo fills appear after the gate. Example: tx 0x95475a414f3fd2767b4850b3de1955e6c966d4bbc9ca9151effb6afdada6c22e, sent through the 4337 EntryPoint 0x4337084d9e255ff0702461cf8895ce9e3b5ff108.
  - 699 of its pre-gate swap receipts were checked one by one. None had a fomo log.
- **Prereg note:** the pre-registration counted thesis posts (n_pre / n_g5). This run counts fomo traders instead. A fomo trader count is an upper bound on thesis posts, so a kill on traders is also a kill on theses.
- **Holder counts:** fomo shows only today's holder count. That is lookahead, so it is not used.

## The 15 coins that went 10x: first fomo trade vs the gate
| token | half | first fomo trade (min after gate) | fomo traders before gate | fomo buyers gate to 5x |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0x88042d98421b4d4014910bd9ca40d3cf3a309733 | A | 54 | 0 | 2 |
| 0xabe99cf268cdc8bd70a71a5283fdacbcb36714fd | A | 26 | 0 | 3 |
| 0xfa1824e750f9a5bc7d253342935471b8f2709d70 | A | 11 | 0 | 2 |
| 0x97a5d4306a99571ecce5c2448ebfad85d7a8321d | A | 4 | 0 | 1 |
| 0xe0cd4e72769e7317891d1e49905878b7b14c67ac | A | 846 | 0 | 0 |
| 0xead015725c6cc0a38cdaea04cb7933210198b830 | A | 88 | 0 | 0 |
| 0xe99c8437b0b29325a4080b8c837ff4e5a6f9fc69 | A | none in 24 h | 0 | 0 |
| 0xc261532bc770c2b4ea10f97f72328aa0fc51b0d0 | A | 103 | 0 | 1 |
| 0x59b85970630dd8b808aad4257b0cdf02a8b22f90 | A | 284 | 0 | 0 |
| 0x257723230c9cccf6a2df1e7cf67cffcfcf01eeb8 | A | 37 | 0 | 0 |
| 0xba1a2d9783ebe2b76493c5c12eb9813a0e062843 | B | none in 24 h | 0 | 0 |
| 0xee049979960d5e42b389b941ec45790ca7b6e1f7 | B | 1006 | 0 | 0 |
| 0x8e41fd25e85e624560fa50ff9f117a02cd30b8b3 | B | 78 | 0 | 1 |
| 0x224a794031d54e49b46919ade2c55ff255dfdd97 | B | 83 | 0 | 1 |
| 0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 | B | 187 | 0 | 0 |

## What it means
- The X crowd and the fomo crowd both arrive after the gate. The coins that went 10x were found first by someone else.
- **V17 (next)** goes after that first wave: which contract sent each buy before the gate (direct to pool, SwapRouter02, or a Telegram bot router). The swap tape with each tx sender is already partly cached.
  - 93% of pre-gate swaps on the first 12 coins were sent to 0xf2a277490c6e1d511e236c64895a0fef39aa8098, and the pool saw them from 0xcaf681a66d020601342297493863e78c959e5cb2.
  - Labelling these is V17's first step.

Version v1, 7 Oct 2026 10:31 Bangkok, Analyst 4 (Virality Expert). Latest version: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v16.md