# Virality Expert V6: how much do we leave on the table by selling at 5x?

## READ THIS FIRST
- **No ladder beats "all out at 5x" in both halves. Do not change the exit yet.** The halves disagree:
  - **First half:** selling everything at 5x is best: 2.34x, against 1.97x to 2.23x for every ladder. Every first-half 5x coin was pulled 2 to 8 h after its peak, so holding gave it back.
  - **Second half:** holding a part wins. 50% at 5x with the rest on a trail makes 2.51x against 1.88x. All on a trail after 3x makes 3.19x. Four second-half coins kept running for 48 h without a pull: 0xba1a2d9783ebe2b76493c5c12eb9813a0e062843 (73.9x peak), 0x8e41fd25e85e624560fa50ff9f117a02cd30b8b3 (41.6x), 0xc38c332012a9116dcade0c7f43b5d3c71799a9f8 (27.4x) and 0x224a794031d54e49b46919ade2c55ff255dfdd97 (15.5x).
- **Best compromise if you want one: (b) 50% at 5x, the rest on a 50% trail.** First half 2.23x (−0.11x vs today), second half 2.51x (+0.63x). $ a day at $500: $1,186 vs $1,296, and $2,524 vs $1,466. That is a paper-book candidate, not a switch.
- **One coin is removed from every number:** 0x0f526bdc56d1d764bd744412c1aba039c3728b76 (pool 0x13ac7c272013b0537ef527e2da32060626641a09). Its price went 1,000x+ on a pool with only $2.8k on the quote side at our entry. That is a "$1B cap" on an empty pool, so the depth model can't be trusted there. With it in, the second half looks like 5x to 7x for every ladder.
- **How far do the 5x coins run?** 24 of 58 trades hit 5x. Their peaks before a pull or 48 h: 5 to 10x in 11 trades, 10 to 20x in 7, 20 to 50x in 4, and 50x+ in 2 (one is the empty-pool coin above).
- **Not done yet:** the wide cell from A2.16 ($1M gate, age up to 3 h, top 0.08, army 0.015). There is no per-trade list for it. **Ask Analyst 2:** publish sw-a2-16-wide-trades.csv (token, pool, gate time, half) and I'll run it the same day.

## Table (58 main trades minus the empty-pool coin; $500; live stop 0.3x)
| Ladder | First half | Second half | $ a day A / B | Worst day A / B |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| (a) all out at 5x (today) | 2.34x, median 0.74 | 1.88x, median 0.48 | 1,296 / 1,466 | +1,188 / −1,000 |
| (b) 50% at 5x, rest trail | 2.23x, median 0.74 | 2.51x, median 0.48 | 1,186 / 2,524 | +842 / −1,000 |
| (c) 1/3 at 3x, 1/3 at 5x, 1/3 trail | 1.97x, median 1.94 | 2.23x, median 0.62 | 937 / 2,049 | +554 / −1,000 |
| (d) all on a trail after 3x | 2.00x, median 1.46 | 3.19x, median 0.62 | 964 / 3,650 | +196 / −1,000 |
| (e) 70% at 5x, 30% to pull or 48 h | 2.04x, median 0.74 | 2.45x, median 0.48 | 999 / 2,421 | +622 / −1,000 |

## Method
- Entry at gate + 5 s, $500 against the pool's depth R (spec A2.1). Each sell is priced at R at that moment: received = R × v / (R + v) × 0.99.
- Stop 0.3x applies only before any sale. Trail = sell the rest on a 50% drop from the peak.
- Pull = R falls to half or less of its highest value in the last hour. The rest is sold into what is left.
- If nothing is sold by 12 h, everything goes (as in the rule). After a first sale, the rest can be held up to 48 h.
- Days: first half 14 to 27 Sep (14 days), second half 28 Sep to 6 Oct (9 days), same as A2.16.

## First principles score
- **7 of 10.** Every sell is priced at the live depth.
- Open: one empty-pool coin shows the R model breaks when the price leaves the launch range. The wide cell isn't run yet. The second-half edge comes from 4 coins.

Version: v1, 6 Oct 2026, 15:24 Bangkok. Latest version: http://159.223.88.168/hx-c9ois/sw/sw-virality-v6.md