{"as_of":"2026-10-21","call":{"word":"HOLD BTC","line":"BTC risk is on. Alts have not washed out and turned, so they are not the trade yet."},"held_now":{"BTC":100},"want":{"BTC":100},"dropped":[],"risk":{"on":true,"btc":1141,"ma":1016,"ma_days":100,"dist":12.4,"since":"2026-08-19"},"clock":{"c90":55,"c30":38,"washed_recent":false,"bottom":false,"top_warning":false,"n_alts":64},"baskets":[{"key":"BTC","name":"Bitcoin","members":["BTC"],"vs_btc_30d":null,"ret_30d":-2.9,"trend":"up","funding":8.8,"funding_pct":57,"clock90":null,"clock30":null,"weight":100,"shade":"green","word":"RISK ON","why":"BTC is 12.4% above its 100 day average. Risk switched on on 2026-08-19. It flips on at +1% and off at -1%, so a wobble on the line cannot flip it.","checks":[["BTC over its 100 day average, with the 1% band",true]],"spark":[1.0,0.9995,0.9862,1.015,1.052,1.0421,1.0398,1.022,0.9948,1.0027,0.9956,0.9617,0.9544,0.8623,0.7887,0.815,0.8219,0.8493,0.8332,0.8306,0.8103,0.7764,0.7784,0.7952,0.8221,0.8046,0.8244,0.8401,0.8259,0.843,0.8409,0.8449,0.8265,0.8115,0.8279,0.8386,0.8264,0.82,0.8126,0.8957,0.9956,1.0146,1.0056,1.0151,1.0497,1.0378,1.0115,0.9983,0.9771,1.0451,1.1189,1.0904,1.0913,1.0802,1.0948,1.1052,1.0673,1.0573,1.0622,1.0607,1.0863]},{"key":"ETH","name":"Ether","members":["ETH"],"vs_btc_30d":-8.0,"ret_30d":-10.9,"trend":"down","funding":7.0,"funding_pct":42,"clock90":null,"clock30":null,"weight":0,"shade":"grey","word":"LAGGING BTC","why":"Single coin, no basket clock. Shown for context.","checks":[["the alt market washed out in the last 60 days",false],["alts are beating BTC again (30 day share 40%+)",false]],"spark":[1.0,0.9951,0.9753,1.0035,1.0156,1.0049,0.9827,0.9609,0.9201,0.9217,0.9071,0.8747,0.8736,0.8034,0.684,0.7301,0.7229,0.7454,0.7561,0.7519,0.7201,0.6819,0.6967,0.7346,0.7714,0.7531,0.7722,0.8173,0.7956,0.8227,0.8113,0.8444,0.8253,0.7969,0.8077,0.8268,0.8091,0.8148,0.8104,0.973,1.0466,1.0551,1.0553,1.066,1.0831,1.0863,1.0662,1.0911,1.0358,1.1282,1.1991,1.1611,1.1614,1.1601,1.1608,1.1653,1.0746,1.0571,1.0547,1.0412,1.0687]},{"key":"SOL","name":"Solana","members":["SOL"],"vs_btc_30d":-7.1,"ret_30d":-10.0,"trend":"down","funding":3.4,"funding_pct":41,"clock90":null,"clock30":null,"weight":0,"shade":"grey","word":"LAGGING BTC","why":"Single coin, no basket clock. Shown for context.","checks":[["the alt market washed out in the last 60 days",false],["alts are beating BTC again (30 day share 40%+)",false]],"spark":[1.0,0.9842,0.9641,0.9738,1.0346,1.0806,1.0941,1.0356,0.9908,1.0136,0.9894,0.9566,0.96,0.8611,0.7383,0.7755,0.7764,0.8271,0.8359,0.8495,0.8088,0.8343,0.8725,0.9368,0.9467,0.9031,0.8909,0.9036,0.8706,0.9033,0.8806,0.8908,0.855,0.8348,0.8559,0.855,0.8819,0.8849,0.8657,0.9909,1.0888,1.1209,1.2085,1.196,1.2061,1.2361,1.1786,1.1809,1.1243,1.3081,1.3798,1.3582,1.4155,1.3707,1.3881,1.4007,1.2667,1.2271,1.2235,1.2082,1.2412]},{"key":"MAJORS","name":"Large caps","members":["BNB","XRP","ADA","AVAX","DOT","LINK","TRX","LTC","BCH","ATOM","NEAR","APT","SUI","ICP","FIL","HBAR","XLM","ETC","XTZ","ALGO"],"vs_btc_30d":-0.7,"ret_30d":-3.6,"trend":"up","funding":3.7,"funding_pct":37,"clock90":70,"clock30":35,"weight":0,"shade":"red","word":"TOP CONFIRMED","why":"Most of the large caps have beaten BTC for three months and have now stopped. This lagged BTC over the next 60 days 17 of 22 times in 2020 to 2024 and 10 of 13 since.","checks":[["extended: 70%+ of members beat BTC over 90 days",true],["rolled over: under 50% beat BTC over the last 30 days",true]],"spark":[1.0,0.9902,0.9688,0.9732,1.0507,1.0839,1.0812,1.0316,0.9994,1.0225,1.0069,1.0036,1.014,0.9418,0.8035,0.8307,0.8203,0.8509,0.8485,0.8249,0.7957,0.7635,0.7614,0.7862,0.8295,0.7861,0.7929,0.8001,0.7836,0.7904,0.7815,0.7883,0.7419,0.7391,0.7676,0.7562,0.7567,0.7497,0.7385,0.7845,0.8877,0.8531,0.8378,0.8285,0.8789,0.9243,0.9254,0.8901,0.8513,0.9848,1.0918,1.1098,1.162,1.137,1.1388,1.1507,1.0859,1.061,1.0636,1.0267,1.0528]},{"key":"MEMES","name":"Memes","members":["DOGE","SHIB","PEPE","WIF","BONK","FLOKI","MEW","TRUMP","BOME","TURBO","NEIRO","PNUT","GOAT","ACT","PENGU"],"vs_btc_30d":-13.1,"ret_30d":-16.0,"trend":"down","funding":8.2,"funding_pct":67,"clock90":27,"clock30":13,"weight":0,"shade":"grey","word":"LAGGING BTC","why":"Nothing has crossed. Shown for context, not a signal.","checks":[["extended: 70%+ of members beat BTC over 90 days",false],["rolled over: under 50% beat BTC over the last 30 days",true]],"spark":[1.0,1.0002,0.9907,1.0226,1.0939,1.1184,1.0959,1.04,0.9801,1.0112,0.9454,0.9118,0.8992,0.827,0.7147,0.7451,0.7483,0.7922,0.7775,0.7571,0.7195,0.6935,0.7278,0.7221,0.7685,0.7011,0.7028,0.6989,0.675,0.6885,0.6703,0.717,0.6643,0.6736,0.6855,0.6786,0.7221,0.6839,0.6798,0.7409,0.9192,0.8939,0.9121,0.864,0.8921,0.9162,0.8474,0.8354,0.7874,0.8947,0.9887,0.981,0.9955,0.9734,0.9752,0.9694,0.9046,0.8463,0.8269,0.7818,0.8303]},{"key":"AI","name":"AI","members":["FET","RENDER","WLD","GRT","ARKM","VIRTUAL","AIXBT","NMR","PHA","ATH"],"vs_btc_30d":8.3,"ret_30d":5.4,"trend":"up","funding":7.4,"funding_pct":55,"clock90":50,"clock30":70,"weight":0,"shade":"lightred","word":"EXTENDED","why":"Most members have beaten BTC for three months. Not rolled over yet, so no exit, just no new money.","checks":[["extended: 70%+ of members beat BTC over 90 days",true],["rolled over: under 50% beat BTC over the last 30 days",false]],"spark":[1.0,0.9822,0.9652,1.0107,1.0962,1.1332,1.1075,1.0343,1.0071,1.0478,1.0523,1.1355,1.1264,1.0506,0.9312,0.9519,0.9498,1.0154,1.0165,1.0087,0.9548,0.894,0.8734,0.88,0.902,0.8458,0.8612,0.8626,0.8472,0.8437,0.8223,0.8222,0.7392,0.7308,0.7498,0.7447,0.7579,0.7444,0.7244,0.7657,0.8626,0.8851,0.8594,0.8544,0.8736,0.9283,0.8963,0.8682,0.8152,0.9426,1.0841,1.1136,1.2951,1.2381,1.2598,1.3119,1.1906,1.1485,1.1115,1.0426,1.1422]},{"key":"DEFI","name":"DeFi","members":["UNI","AAVE","CRV","LDO","PENDLE","SNX","COMP","SUSHI","1INCH","DYDX","JUP","RAY","ENA","ETHFI","EIGEN","YFI","UMA"],"vs_btc_30d":0.3,"ret_30d":-2.6,"trend":"up","funding":8.0,"funding_pct":39,"clock90":59,"clock30":47,"weight":0,"shade":"red","word":"TOP CONFIRMED","why":"Most of the defi have beaten BTC for three months and have now stopped. 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