Will this token run. Separate from Tech Score, which rates whether the project was actually built.
2026-09-20 13:20 UTC · 217427 tokens seen · 124013 predictions · 28796 with a verdict
Brier score: lower is better, and 0.25 is what a coin flip gets. Rug rate and run rate are the base rates the model has to beat by being right about WHICH ones, not by guessing the average.
| age | model | scored | rug brier | rug base | run brier | run base | buy calls | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | rules-v0 | 1136 | 0.2325 | 0.171 | 0.0501 | 0.044 | 289 | $3,917 |
| 5m | rules-v0 | 1331 | 0.3068 | 0.342 | 0.0536 | 0.049 | 282 | +$3,185 |
| 15m | rules-v0 | 1880 | 0.2977 | 0.35 | 0.0467 | 0.044 | 305 | +$2,704 |
| 1h | rules-v0 | 7881 | 0.2321 | 0.284 | 0.0327 | 0.024 | 1378 | $16,217 |
| 6h | rules-v0 | 16568 | 0.231 | 0.308 | 0.0311 | 0.021 | 2684 | +$50,073 |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 534 | 4% | 4% |
| 10-25% | 347 | 15% | 6% |
| 25-50% | 61 | 33% | 0% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 454 | 4% | 2% |
| 10-25% | 355 | 15% | 10% |
| 25-50% | 67 | 32% | 0% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 689 | 4% | 2% |
| 10-25% | 487 | 15% | 8% |
| 25-50% | 45 | 34% | 7% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 3169 | 4% | 2% |
| 10-25% | 2259 | 14% | 4% |
| 25-50% | 210 | 33% | 2% |
| 50-75% | 8 | 54% | 0% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 6318 | 4% | 2% |
| 10-25% | 4697 | 14% | 3% |
| 25-50% | 442 | 33% | 1% |
| 50-75% | 14 | 53% | 0% |
| day | scored | buy calls | hits | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | 5771 | 1140 | 108 | $63,706 |
| 2026-09-15 | 3042 | 462 | 10 | $10,933 |
| 2026-09-16 | 4585 | 743 | 25 | +$37,330 |
| 2026-09-17 | 4337 | 638 | 10 | +$3,404 |
| 2026-09-18 | 5289 | 925 | 16 | +$37,467 |
| 2026-09-19 | 4408 | 805 | 18 | +$36,895 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1364 | 225 | 3 | $4,629 |
Confident and wrong in both directions. This is the list that decides what feature gets added next.
| token | age | called | p(run) | actual | why it said so |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MA$ON | 1h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | buys lead sells | nobody ever looked at it [1814 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| $GOAT | 1h | no run | 0.07 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1814 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| DICE | 1h | no run | 0.07 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1814 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Nancy | 1h | no run | 0.12 | 1.0x | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1829 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| EVO | 1h | scam | 0.10 | 1.0x | +107.8 holders/min | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1833 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| GOMEZ | 1h | could run | 0.18 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | people looked, no smart money followed [1829 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| $AURA | 1h | no run | 0.02 | RUGGED | dev made 128 tokens, none ever graduated | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1840 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| GOMEZ | 1h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | buys lead sells | nobody ever looked at it [1833 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| TEST | 1h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | nobody ever looked at it [1833 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| GETPAID | 1h | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | dev made 33 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1833 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| AILI | 1h | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | nobody ever looked at it [1833 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| TOAD | 1h | no run | 0.07 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1829 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BTRUMP | 1h | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | nobody ever looked at it [1829 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Nancy | 1h | no run | 0.07 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [1829 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BRAINROT | 1h | no run | 0.02 | RUGGED | dev made 129 tokens, none ever graduated | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [1829 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| token | age | call | p(scam) | p(run) | because | ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 大黄 | 6h | scam | 1.00 | 0.33 | 7 smart wallets in | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | smart money came, it never reached social [2029 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 56m |
| OOPS | 1h | could run | 0.15 | 0.18 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | nobody ever looked at it [2034 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 64m |
| Jeanne | 1h | no run | 0.15 | 0.06 | bundled 32% | 3 smart wallets in | smart money came, it never reached social [2027 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 69m |
| 1000X | 1h | could run | 0.19 | 0.18 | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [2034 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 74m |
| KILROY | 1h | no run | 0.18 | 0.02 | dev made 44 tokens, none ever graduated | a known wallet is in | duplicate art or socials | smart money came, it never reached social [2022 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 74m |
| RatWizard | 6h | scam | 0.77 | 0.07 | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2019 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 75m |
| bul | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.35 | 3 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | social picked it up: the whole chain fired [2027 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 76m |
| WARCOIN | 1h | could run | 0.16 | 0.20 | a known wallet is in | dev has graduated one before | smart money came, it never reached social [2034 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 76m |
| ZESTLIFE | 6h | no run | 0.00 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [2000 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 100m |
| deFLOCK | 1h | no run | 0.14 | 0.10 | +6.5 holders/min | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2028 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 100m |
| KILROY | 1h | no run | 0.25 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2028 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 103m |
| ROBINPHIL | 1h | could run | 0.16 | 0.24 | +4.5 holders/min | dev has graduated one before | people looked, no smart money followed [2028 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 103m |
| deFLOCK | 1h | could run | 0.15 | 0.16 | +9.6 holders/min | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2028 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 103m |
| deFLOCK | 1h | could run | 0.09 | 0.24 | +105.4 holders/min | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2031 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 103m |
| ROBINPHIL | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.10 | +6.6 holders/min | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2034 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 104m |
| Cupcoin | 1h | could run | 0.12 | 0.20 | 3 smart wallets in | real socials, original art | people looked, no smart money followed [2028 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 104m |
| YAP-SOL | 6h | no run | 0.01 | 0.10 | real socials, original art | people looked, no smart money followed [1946 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 107m |
| wApe | 1h | could run | 0.17 | 0.16 | +9.1 holders/min | people looked, no smart money followed [2027 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 107m |
| ROBINPHIL | 1h | could run | 0.13 | 0.16 | +10.3 holders/min | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2036 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 107m |
| TikTok | 1h | no run | 0.41 | 0.05 | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [2034 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 107m |
| Anthropic | 1h | no run | 0.30 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [2034 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 107m |
| DeFlock OG | 1h | no run | 0.30 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2036 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 109m |
| ROBINPHIL | 1h | could run | 0.18 | 0.39 | +19.3 holders/min | 4 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | real socials, original art | smart money came, it never reached social [2027 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 110m |
| KILROY | 1h | no run | 0.13 | 0.10 | +10.7 holders/min | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2027 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 110m |
| Bybit | 1h | no run | 0.26 | 0.05 | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [2036 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 110m |
| age band | predicts | name | brier on unseen day | trained on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15m | rug | lr-rug-15m-09180522 | 0.0661 | 976 rows |
| 1h | rug | lr-rug-1h-09141302 | 0.1447 | 109 rows |
| 1m | rug | lr-rug-1m-09141438 | 0.0453 | 268 rows |
| 5m | rug | lr-rug-5m-09141352 | 0.1395 | 202 rows |
| 6h | rug | lr-rug-6h-09190957 | 0.0842 | 2886 rows |
What is launching, and what is actually working. Every raw number is judged against this cohort, not on its own: twenty holders in five minutes means different things on a dead night and in a run.
Launchpads behind the runners: pump_mayhem 79%, Pump.fun 18%, meteora_virtual_curve 3%
Words in the names of things that ran: 999, aphrodite, att, attention, aura, bbp, bigtittycoin, bike, bikecat, bom, bricked, brickedbets, btc, bunny, business, buy, ceiling, celing, chbu, chill, coolest, dogg, doob, doobie
| token | pad | paired to | mcap | holders | age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USDF | Pump.fun | 5 | $58,857,647 | 2913 | 56m |
| Claude | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $53,352,089 | 8 | 43m |
| WOTF | Pump.fun | 5 | $6,682,813 | 4995 | 10m |
| TRUMAN | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $2,189,236 | 18 | 81m |
| WSOS | Pump.fun | 5 | $2,125,770 | 1694 | 2m |
| Rolex | Pump.fun | 5 | $1,172,219 | 1693 | 112m |
| AXIS | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $1,050,745 | 1201 | 118m |
| AXIS | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $1,050,235 | 1143 | 80m |
| OPENAI | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $1,042,158 | 1099 | 79m |
| McDonald's | Pump.fun | 5 | $995,147 | 1681 | 51m |
| FOMO | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $992,174 | 902 | 67m |
| Youtube | meteora_virtual_curve | 5 | $989,257 | 894 | 63m |
1332391 roster rows across 43292 tokens, 318117 distinct wallets. 90527 have a track record, 23770 of those on 3 tokens or more. 423712 pairs of wallets have turned up together on more than one token. Average entry, 2.5 minutes after launch.
| wallet | tokens | ran | hit rate | vs base | times early |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9rEgCtCmm541z57fQyKzY1ANWZUwLHsUGtHn2LYmZbGs | 3 | 3 | 51% | 34.32x | 3 |
| ANyJL2shb5ZdpJijhefYsPFy77RQ4WU3Z8hw9ha8JHJN | 3 | 3 | 51% | 34.32x | 3 |
| Bcg6pmBwM97rcUxcdY3ArFcXYMQ9A3zpeVcZAqGJdUtM | 3 | 3 | 51% | 34.32x | 3 |
| ErYDbrvguEjXiFntyLoQU5LaZcvvkGskAr6FcggPsfVD | 3 | 3 | 51% | 34.32x | 3 |
| FLACK7f6ex1vdMhS72iubFsNVivARV8KyuuGyGesMvyN | 3 | 3 | 51% | 34.32x | 3 |
| 3JrrvL9XfBbMpm8Yy7RPuXqn1K6KyYXgYsHjQtfLuz9C | 9 | 5 | 42% | 28.43x | 2 |
| 7DRSVjQ7UQuPpC1gEZCLWdYUbsPFZQSd6LKukndGHAB9 | 5 | 3 | 38% | 25.74x | 2 |
| 4WtisrWAAHyT4ZpGrgZGJ2tcPQ1guYpTKEY8Lt4Euqkn | 5 | 3 | 38% | 25.74x | 5 |
| 4zvU2chFu415AH5cgbmNRvkpkLvk6ehcb81Dp2mkXmcm | 5 | 3 | 38% | 25.74x | 5 |
| 95sQ25QurnovgBBYA6rc1MiD56HuWhDFp7NJB7q3dLLm | 5 | 3 | 38% | 25.74x | 5 |
| BRUBnsBjopSr6qv5KfQ5bSMnDdHAxY1Y2U92Vt8cwXc1 | 5 | 3 | 38% | 25.74x | 5 |
| DdtuV74UKx6UoqhsopXki4qgNJzG6HHdTXWzF7kdDACF | 5 | 3 | 38% | 25.74x | 5 |
Hit rate is shrunk toward the 23.9% base rate, so a wallet with one lucky token does not show a 4x edge. "Ran" means the token peaked above $100,000 AFTER that wallet bought, never before.
| 09-20 13:19 | boot | trench up, 281 features, bands 1m,5m,15m,1h,6h |
| 09-20 12:44 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:40 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:39 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:37 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:35 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:30 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:24 | freeze-err | ProgrammingError('Cannot operate on a closed database.') |
| 09-20 12:22 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:18 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:13 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:13 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |