Will this token run. Separate from Tech Score, which rates whether the project was actually built.
2026-09-20 13:31 UTC · 112091 tokens seen · 94179 predictions · 27186 with a verdict
Brier score: lower is better, and 0.25 is what a coin flip gets. Rug rate and run rate are the base rates the model has to beat by being right about WHICH ones, not by guessing the average.
| age | model | scored | rug brier | rug base | run brier | run base | buy calls | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1m | rules-v0 | 1400 | 0.1043 | 0.005 | 0.0186 | 0.008 | 72 | +$10,285 |
| 5m | rules-v0 | 2102 | 0.1166 | 0.034 | 0.0107 | 0.005 | 73 | +$6,288 |
| 15m | rules-v0 | 4049 | 0.2905 | 0.263 | 0.0092 | 0.003 | 204 | +$7,018 |
| 1h | rules-v0 | 8652 | 0.3693 | 0.368 | 0.0091 | 0.003 | 369 | +$18,274 |
| 6h | rules-v0 | 10983 | 0.2953 | 0.446 | 0.0105 | 0.003 | 520 | $2,234 |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 973 | 4% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 326 | 15% | 1% |
| 25-50% | 80 | 35% | 6% |
| 50-75% | 14 | 54% | 29% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 1548 | 3% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 429 | 13% | 1% |
| 25-50% | 43 | 34% | 5% |
| 50-75% | 10 | 54% | 50% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 2256 | 3% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 651 | 13% | 0% |
| 25-50% | 74 | 33% | 10% |
| 50-75% | 3 | 53% | 33% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 4002 | 3% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 1323 | 13% | 0% |
| 25-50% | 139 | 32% | 9% |
| it said | n | average claim | actually ran |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0-10% | 4293 | 3% | 0% |
| 10-25% | 1630 | 13% | 1% |
| 25-50% | 162 | 31% | 4% |
| day | scored | buy calls | hits | paper p&l |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-13 | 2633 | 79 | 14 | +$6,381 |
| 2026-09-14 | 2540 | 77 | 4 | +$860 |
| 2026-09-15 | 3469 | 155 | 3 | $3,816 |
| 2026-09-16 | 3137 | 141 | 2 | $796 |
| 2026-09-17 | 2979 | 187 | 3 | +$4,340 |
| 2026-09-18 | 5089 | 231 | 0 | $8,561 |
| 2026-09-19 | 5510 | 321 | 15 | +$37,702 |
| 2026-09-20 | 1829 | 47 | 2 | +$3,519 |
Confident and wrong in both directions. This is the list that decides what feature gets added next.
| token | age | called | p(run) | actual | why it said so |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DUBAI CHOCOLATE | 15m | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | nobody ever looked at it [799 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BENEK | 15m | no run | 0.12 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | dev has graduated one before | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [799 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BENEK | 15m | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [799 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| HIRE | 15m | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [799 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| JAEMYUNG | 1h | no run | 0.03 | RUGGED | dev made 10009 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | nobody ever looked at it [806 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BENEK | 15m | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [799 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| PISTACHIO | 15m | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | | nobody ever looked at it [799 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Neko Chain | 1h | no run | 0.03 | RUGGED | dev made 9766 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | nobody ever looked at it [807 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Till | 15m | no run | 0.10 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| $FAST | 15m | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| TILLS | 15m | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| ErhaFi | 15m | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| TILL | 15m | no run | 0.01 | RUGGED | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| Benek | 15m | no run | 0.12 | RUGGED | dev has graduated one before | nobody ever looked at it [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| BABYZCAT | 15m | no run | 0.05 | RUGGED | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [811 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] |
| token | age | call | p(scam) | p(run) | because | ago |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZUNON | r3600/1h | no run | 0.05 | 0.00 | from reconstructed history at 3600s | 5m |
| ZUNON | 1h | no run | 0.36 | 0.14 | 3 smart wallets in | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | social picked it up: the whole chain fired [834 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 5m |
| VIBZ | r3600/1h | no run | 0.08 | 0.00 | from reconstructed history at 3600s | 5m |
| VIBZ | 1h | no run | 0.38 | 0.09 | 3 smart wallets in | duplicate art or socials | smart money came, it never reached social [834 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 5m |
| HEDGEHOOD | 6h | no run | 0.09 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 6m |
| $GTG | 6h | no run | 0.44 | 0.05 | | people looked, no smart money followed [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 6m |
| HOLOGRAM | 6h | no run | 0.12 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 11m |
| Cult | 6h | could run | 0.00 | 0.28 | 4 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | real socials, original art | nothing broke [831 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 3, name matches a winner] | 11m |
| JEVAGENT | 15m | scam | 0.70 | 0.03 | dev made 9928 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | nobody ever looked at it [832 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 11m |
| PWEV | r3600/1h | scam | 0.64 | 0.00 | from reconstructed history at 3600s | 43m |
| PWEV | 1h | no run | 0.15 | 0.10 | buys lead sells | nobody ever looked at it [834 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| XL | r3600/1h | no run | 0.15 | 0.00 | from reconstructed history at 3600s | 43m |
| XL | 1h | scam | 0.88 | 0.12 | dev has graduated one before | buys lead sells | duplicate art or socials | people looked, no smart money followed [810 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 1, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| JEVBURN | r3600/1h | no run | 0.01 | 0.00 | from reconstructed history at 3600s | 43m |
| JEVBURN | 1h | could run | 0.00 | 0.33 | +3.3 holders/min | 12 smart wallets in | a known wallet is in | real socials, original art | nothing broke [832 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 3, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| HYPERPACK | 1h | scam | 0.77 | 0.03 | dev made 10013 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | nobody ever looked at it [832 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| DIDDYOIL | 1h | scam | 0.77 | 0.01 | dev made 9962 tokens, none ever graduated | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 3, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| DISNEY | 1h | scam | 0.78 | 0.02 | dev made 9916 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 3, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| CHILL | 1h | scam | 0.78 | 0.02 | dev made 10107 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| MARSCOIN | 1h | scam | 0.78 | 0.02 | dev made 10014 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| TLTAN | 1h | scam | 0.77 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| TITANCOIN | 1h | scam | 1.00 | 0.01 | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| EVER | 1h | scam | 0.78 | 0.02 | dev made 9963 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, no Tech Score, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| STARE | 1h | scam | 0.78 | 0.02 | dev made 9917 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | duplicate art or socials | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 2, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| STOCKBALL | 1h | scam | 0.78 | 0.03 | dev made 10107 tokens, none ever graduated | real socials, original art | nobody ever looked at it [830 launches/2h, 0% running, Tech Score 3, name matches a winner] | 43m |
| age band | predicts | name | brier on unseen day | trained on |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1h | rug | lr-rug-1h-09170824 | 0.1075 | 209 rows |
| 6h | rug | lr-rug-6h-09160458 | 0.1391 | 1109 rows |
| r3600 | rug | rc-rug-r3600-09140535 | 0.3043 | 90 rows |
What is launching, and what is actually working. Every raw number is judged against this cohort, not on its own: twenty holders in five minutes means different things on a dead night and in a run.
Launchpads behind the runners: pons_v2 68%, pools_trade_instant 18%, longxyz 9%
Words in the names of things that ran: anth, anthropic, babycate, benek, cgs, chill, chineo, compile, cyber, flywheel, genesis, ghost, grokkybara, hoodcat, hype, hypegg, jiro, just, niche, onix, panda, pawn, pawns, pens
| token | pad | paired to | mcap | holders | age |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ACROSS | pons_v2 | 20 | $182,716 | 888 | 28m |
| ROBOCLAW | bankr | 11 | $114,089 | 170 | 41m |
| TRADECOON | pons | 11 | $51,759 | 14286 | 98m |
| FEEL | longxyz | $29,282 | 33 | 22m | |
| FEEL | longxyz | $29,282 | 33 | 22m | |
| ETFPAD | pons_v2 | 20 | $27,692 | 132 | 116m |
| WGBTC | longxyz | $27,387 | 25 | 114m | |
| TOUCHPAY | pons_v2 | 20 | $24,807 | 98 | 88m |
| CADE | longxyz | $22,156 | 11 | 0m | |
| CADE | longxyz | $22,156 | 11 | 0m | |
| SHADERS | longxyz | $21,844 | 10 | 47m | |
| FREEMIUM | longxyz | $20,651 | 4 | 49m |
566648 roster rows across 31765 tokens, 148586 distinct wallets. 70952 have a track record, 17035 of those on 3 tokens or more. 263024 pairs of wallets have turned up together on more than one token. Average entry, 3.9 minutes after launch.
| wallet | tokens | ran | hit rate | vs base | times early |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0xb751855eb0680524d2d3910b8e56db795f2391ca | 3 | 3 | 51% | 26.50x | 3 |
| 0xe3d93f29b73f8d3cdd7bdad73f4682fbbde8bcb5 | 3 | 3 | 51% | 26.50x | 3 |
| 0x5638484ba2d2f1d1d35020572b0aa439a9869192 | 8 | 5 | 46% | 23.90x | 4 |
| 0x52616daf9dc68468506a84f9b5c11079e21d7b4c | 4 | 3 | 44% | 22.71x | 3 |
| 0x2d86499a410a9ac2139833ba8d6942b8a8700a7b | 4 | 3 | 44% | 22.71x | 2 |
| 0x735362a17532f349f2500425bad3cd891c3935d3 | 9 | 5 | 42% | 21.91x | 5 |
| 0x0a94e442f799c407f2127dc5d80c48cad3483c88 | 5 | 3 | 38% | 19.87x | 3 |
| 0x2a4dbaf83b433b7f8c2af7bae285596cffa01e82 | 5 | 3 | 38% | 19.87x | 4 |
| 0x6c4aa67d6202231bfc6f446fb1bfed12abef684e | 5 | 3 | 38% | 19.87x | 4 |
| 0x734e23ddd71f320c1e5e2e4a81ad657163995eef | 5 | 3 | 38% | 19.87x | 4 |
| 0xf9193ec28e3bca91f66265e269c2913625293c9d | 5 | 3 | 38% | 19.87x | 4 |
| 0x53ae6fa9ca4344832913ade74148b4904bce649b | 5 | 3 | 38% | 19.87x | 5 |
Hit rate is shrunk toward the 1.9% base rate, so a wallet with one lucky token does not show a 4x edge. "Ran" means the token peaked above $100,000 AFTER that wallet bought, never before.
| 09-20 13:30 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 13:24 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 13:19 | boot | trench up, 281 features, bands 1m,5m,15m,1h,6h |
| 09-20 12:43 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:43 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:38 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:32 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:32 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:31 | collect-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |
| 09-20 12:28 | label | 60 of 60 produced an outcome |
| 09-20 12:24 | freeze-err | ProgrammingError('Cannot operate on a closed database.') |
| 09-20 12:23 | freeze-err | OperationalError('database is locked') |