1 · Risk switch: is it safe to buy alts?
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2 · Broad alts vs BTC: have alts washed out and turned? (64 coin set)
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3 month score (white): out of 64 big coins, the % that did better than BTC over the last 3 months. Green zone = alts washed out (5% or less). Red zone = alts hot (70% or more).
1 month score (orange): the same over the last month. Green zone = alts turning (40% or more).
The book buys alts only when all three are ticked:
This drives the v2 book only; the chain baskets above have their own rule.
3 · History: where the system kept the money, and what it made
This is the CASH / BTC / ALTS book from sections 1 and 2, run since June 2020. Simulated, not your account.
Chart 1. What $1 became
green line: $1 following the system (after 0.3% trading costs)orange line: $1 just holding BTC
Coloured strip under the chart = where the system kept the money that day:altsBTCcash
Chart 2. Are alts beating BTC? (what moves the money between cash, BTC and alts)
white line: out of 64 big coins, the % that did better than BTC over the last 3 months (7 day average)orange line: the same over the last 1 month
green floor (5% or less): alts washed out, almost none beat BTCred ceiling (70% or more): alts are hot, most beat BTC
How to read it: when the white line drops into the green floor, alts are washed out; when the orange line then climbs back above 40%, alts are turning and the system moves into alts (green strip in chart 1). When the white line sits in the red ceiling, alts are hot and a top is near.
7 · Report card: did the system catch the big moves? (graded with hindsight)
| Rotation | Best place | Won by | Days late | Time in it | Caught |
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A major rotation is a stretch where cash, BTC or alts beat the next best place by 20% or more, labelled with hindsight (best place over the next 45 days, stretches under 21 days merged). Hindsight is only used to grade the system, never inside it. Caught means the system held that place for half the stretch or more.